The Oklahoma City Thunder (25-27) visit the Golden State Warriors (27-26) on Monday night. Action tips off at 10:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Thunder-Warriors prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Oklahoma City has lost two of their last three games and sits in 12th place in the Western Conference. The Thunder covered a league-best 63% of their games while 58% went over the projected point total. Golden State has lost two of their last three and sits in eighth place in the West. The Warriors covered 46% of their games while 61% went over. This will be the second of four meetings between the conference foes. Golden State picked up a 128-120 road victory in the first game between the teams last week.
Here are the Thunder-Warriors NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Thunder-Warriors Odds
Oklahoma City Thunder: +4 (-114)
Golden State Warriors: -4 (-106)
Over: 234 (-110)
Under: 234 (-110)
How To Watch Thunder vs. Warriors
TV: Bally Oklahoma, NBCS Bay Area
Stream: NBA League Pass
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET/ 7:00 p.m. PT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Thunder Could Cover The Spread
Oklahoma City enters tonight after an impressive 153-121 dismantling of Houston. Despite being road underdogs, the Thunder have a great chance to cover tonight thanks to their high-powered offense. Oklahoma City averages the fifth-most points per game with 117.3 PPG and they are absolutely lethal inside the arc. The Thunder rank fourth in point in the paint, averaging 55.6 PPG. Additionally, the Thunder are a sneaky-good offensive rebounding team – ranking in the top half of the league in offensive rebound rate. Their biggest advantage tonight could come in the turnover battle. While OKC forces the most turnovers per game (16.7) Golden State averages the second-most turnovers per game (16.6). That bodes especially well for their chances of covering tonight considering the Warriors will be without star guard Stephen Curry.
Fresh off a 150-point performance against the Rockets, the Thunder certainly have the offensive firepower to cover tonight as road underdogs. That offense starts with star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA has taken his game to an entirely different level this season, averaging career-highs across the board. The All-Star averages 31 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 5.6 APG. He's been a sneaky-good defensive player too, averaging 1.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. SGA has the potential to go off and carry his team to victory on any given night. Coming off a 42-point outburst against the Rockets, expect him to be locked and loaded against the defending champs.
The X-factor for Oklahoma City tonight is wing Josh Giddey. The second-year pro is one of the most exciting young players in the league. Despite being just 20 years old, the former sixth-overall pick has a very high basketball IQ. For the season, Giddey averages 16.2 PPG, 8.0 RPG, and 5.9 APG. A nightly triple-double threat, Giddey should give the Warriors fits tonight after he torched them for 21 points, eight rebounds, and six assists in their previous matchup.
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
Golden State enters tonight's game with major question marks following an injury to Steph Curry. That being said, Curry missed extended time earlier this season and the Warriors have shown the ability to win and cover games without him. Although they will be without their star tonight, Golden State remains a potent offensive team. The Warriors average the second-most points per game with 118 PPG. Additionally, they are the best passing team in basketball as they average 29.5 APG. Aiding their chances of covering tonight is their stellar home record. With a 20-6 record, the Warriors are one of the best home teams in the league. Additionally, their 60% home cover rate ranks eighth in the NBA.
Without Curry, the Warriors will likely turn to Jordan Poole to take on an increased offensive workload. In 15 games without Steph, Poole has been the unquestioned leader on the offensive end. In these games, Poole averaged 28.1 PPG and 4.3 APG while shooting 43% from the floor. While he isn't as efficient as Curry, Poole certainly has a similar “heat check” element to his game. A big game from Poole would do wonders for their chance of covering tonight, as well as their confidence in the team going forward.
The X-factor for Golden State tonight has to be Klay Thompson. Klay has taken a small step back this season as he has shown signs of aging. That being said, he also stepped up in a huge way when Steph missed time earlier in the season. In nine appearances without Curry, Thompson averaged 25.6 PPG. That included 4.3 made threes per game on 38% shooting from beyond the arc.
Final Thunder-Warriors Prediction & Pick
In their first game without Steph, I like the red-hot Thunder to keep things tight and potentially even win outright.
Final Thunder-Warriors Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder +4 (-114)
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