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The Golden State Warriors (14-13) visit the Milwaukee Bucks (19-7) on Tuesday. Action tips off at 7:30 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Warriors-Bucks prediction and pick.
Golden State has won three of their last five games to steady them at eighth in the Western Conference. The Warriors are 13-14 against the spread while 54% of their games have gone over. Milwaukee has won four of their last five games to propel them to second in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks are 14-10 against the spread while 54% of their games have gone under. This will be the first of two meetings between the two teams. They split last year's series, 1-1, with the home team emerging victorious by double digits in both matchups.
Here are the Warriors-Bucks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Warriors-Bucks Odds
Golden State Warriors: +4 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks: -4 (-110)
Over: 233.5 (-110)
Under: 233.5 (-110)
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
Golden State has played better of late but still has some work to do if they want to match their lofty preseason expectations. The defending champs have kept their potent offense from last season, ranking fourth in scoring and ninth in offensive rating. They've lost all semblance of their championship defense, however, as they rank just 23rd in points allowed and 17th in defensive rating. The Warriors don't do themselves any favors on the glass either where they rank 18th in rebound differential and 25th in rebound rate. Andrew Wiggins will notably be out tonight due to an injury.
Golden State had just appeared to be turning their season around when their second-leading scorer, Andrew Wiggins, suffered a groin injury. Not only is Wiggins their second-leading scorer, but he's also their best wing defender and the best athlete on the team. In his absence tonight the Warriors will need one of their role players to step up – particularly on defense. Second-year forward Jonathan Kuminga is the most likely candidate to soak up the additional minutes. Kuminga has the body type to be a capable NBA player but is still putting it all together. That being said, the 6'7″ forward has begun to put it together lately. Over his last three games, Kuminga has averaged 16 PPG and 4.7 RPG while shooting 77% from the field.
While Kuminga is speculated to soak up the additional minutes from Wiggins' injury, the scoring void he leaves is up for grabs. In all likelihood, Steph Curry will only add to his sky-high usage rate. Curry is having one of the best seasons of his career despite his team's struggles – averaging 30 PPG, 6.6 RPG, and 7.0 APG while shooting 50% from the field and 44% from three. He's coming off a 32-point performance against Boston and will need a similar outing if Golden State wants to cover tonight. Steph has averaged 26 PPG on 49% shooting in his career against opposing guard Jrue Holiday – something to keep in mind before making a Warriors-Bucks prediction.
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
Milwaukee has looked the part of a championship contender this season, particularly on the defensive end. The Bucks are no slouches on offense, ranking 17th in scoring and 18th in offensive rating. Their calling card is on the defensive end, however, as they rank second in points allowed and first in defensive rating. They are similarly dominant on the glass where they rank second in both rebound differential and rebound rate. Notably, guard Jrue Holiday is listed as questionable with an illness while Kris Middleton is expected to play.
The Bucks weathered the storm over the first month of the season but finally have Kris Middleton back from injury. It hasn't all been smooth sailing upon his return, however, as they've lost games to both the Lakers and Rockets – two of the worst teams in the West. Middleton has looked rusty but takes the team to another level when he's 100%. Middleton has struggled with his shot since he returned but he should see his 35% field goal percentage climb against Golden State's abysmal defense.
Giannis is a matchup nightmare for every team but the Warriors stand out as one particularly inept at handling him. Without Wiggins, there is no one on Golden State's team who can go toe-to-toe with him on the perimeter and down low. He should be in for yet another big night in such a favorable matchup. With season averages of 31.1 PPG, 11.3 RPG, and 5.4 APG, there isn't much the Greek Freak can do to improve upon his season numbers, but a 40-point, 15-rebound performance is certainly within the realm of possibilities.
Final Warriors-Bucks Prediction & Pick
Without Wiggins, I don't see how Golden State is going to hang with Milwaukee on defense. They're not near athletic enough to compete with the Bucks right now, especially in Milwaukee.
Final Warriors-Bucks Prediction & Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -4 (-110)
