Subscribe
Follow Us
UFC Vegas 106: Gilbert Burns versus Michael Morales continues the prelims with a fight between Luana Santos and Tainara Lisboa in the women's bantamweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Santos-Lisboa prediction and pick.
Luana Santos (8-2) saw her three-fight UFC win streak snapped when she dropped a unanimous decision to Casey O’Neill at UFC 305, struggling to match O’Neill’s output. Before that, Santos impressed with a first-round submission over Mariya Agapova. Now, she looks to rebound against Tainara Lisboa at UFC Vegas 106.
Tainara Lisboa (7-2) remained unbeaten in the UFC with a unanimous decision win over Ravena Oliveira at UFC Vegas 81, following her impressive debut where she submitted Jessica-Rose Clark in the third round. Now riding a five-fight win streak, Lisboa looks to keep her momentum against Luana Santos at UFC Vegas 106.
Here are the UFC Vegas 106 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 106 Odds: Luana Santos-Tainara Lisboa Odds
Luana Santos: -170
Tainara Lisboa: +142
Over 2.5 rounds: -270
Under 2.5 rounds: +200
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Luana Santos Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Casey O'Neill – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 5 (1 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
Luana Santos is well-positioned to secure a win over Tainara Lisboa at UFC Vegas 106, thanks to her superior striking output and well-rounded skill set. Santos lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute-more than double Lisboa’s 2.05-and boasts a striking accuracy of 51%. This high-volume, efficient striking allows Santos to control the tempo and keep opponents on the back foot. While she absorbs more strikes per minute than Lisboa, her 61% striking defense ensures she avoids the majority of incoming shots, and her willingness to engage makes her a constant threat on the feet.
On the ground, Santos complements her striking with solid grappling, averaging 1.62 takedowns per 15 minutes and defending 80% of takedown attempts against her. She also attempts more submissions than Lisboa, showing a greater willingness to attack from all positions. While Lisboa is experienced and durable, Santos’s youth, activity, and ability to mix up her offense give her the edge. If Santos can maintain her pace and avoid extended grappling exchanges where Lisboa thrives, she should be able to outwork her opponent and secure a decision victory, reestablishing herself as a rising contender in the bantamweight division this weekend.
Why Tainara Lisboa Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Ravena Oliveira – DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 6 (3 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Tainara Lisboa is poised to defeat Luana Santos at UFC Vegas 106, leveraging her elite striking defense and extensive combat sports experience. A two-time Muay Thai world champion, Lisboa absorbs just 1.40 significant strikes per minute-less than half of Santos’ 4.15-demonstrating her ability to avoid damage and control the pace of a fight. While Santos throws more volume, Lisboa’s 50% striking accuracy and her knack for landing clean, efficient shots make her a threat in every exchange. Her recent unanimous decision win over Ravena Oliveira showcased not only her technical prowess but also her composure in high-pressure moments.
Lisboa’s grappling is also underrated; she finishes 40% of her takedown attempts and has proven submission skills, as seen in her UFC debut. While Santos is younger and more active, Lisboa’s experience-including facing Valentina Shevchenko in Muay Thai-gives her a unique edge in fight IQ and adaptability. If Lisboa can dictate the range and mix in her wrestling, she can neutralize Santos’ output and capitalize on defensive lapses. With a five-fight win streak and superior durability, expect Lisboa to frustrate Santos, land the cleaner shots, and potentially control key grappling exchanges en route to a decision victory this weekend.
Final Luana Santos-Tainara Lisboa Prediction & Pick
Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa at UFC Vegas 106 is a classic striker-versus-defender matchup, with Santos entering as a slight betting favorite. Santos brings a high-paced, aggressive style, landing 4.28 significant strikes per minute at 51% accuracy-more than double Lisboa’s 2.05 per minute at 50% accuracy. However, this aggression comes at a cost, as Santos absorbs 4.15 significant strikes per minute, while Lisboa’s elite defense allows just 1.40 absorbed per minute, the result of her technical Muay Thai background and disciplined approach.
Both fighters are well-rounded, but Santos is marginally more active in grappling, averaging 1.62 takedowns per 15 minutes with an 80% takedown defense rate, and attempting more submissions than Lisboa. Lisboa, however, has shown she can extend fights and remain composed, with an average fight time of 14:40 compared to Santos’ 9:17. The key to this matchup will be whether Santos can overwhelm Lisboa with volume or if Lisboa’s defense and counterstriking can frustrate and outpoint her over three rounds. Expect a closely contested bout, but Santos’ youth, pace, and offensive variety give her a slight edge to win a competitive decision, though Lisboa’s durability and experience make her a live underdog.
Final Luana Santos-Tainara Lisboa Prediction & Pick: Luana Santos (-170), Over 2.5 Rounds (-270)
