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It's time for another betting prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 106: Burns vs. Morales as we take a look at this upcoming bout in the Featherweight (145) Division. Cuba's newest prospect Yadier del Valle will take on New England Cartel's Connor Matthews in what should be a banger fight on the Prelims. Check the UFC odds series for our del Valle-Matthews prediction and pick.
Yadier del Valle (8-0) will make his UFC debut after a successful unanimous decision victory on Dana White's Contender Series. He's a top-50 ranked Featherweight prospect in North America and with half of his wins coming by way of finish, he'll look to capitalize on the biggest stage as a stern betting favorite. Del Valle stands 5-foot-9 with a 69-inch reach.
Connor Matthews (7-3) is still searching for his first UFC win after posting an 0-2 record in 2024. After earning a contract on DWCS, he's been knocked out in his first two appearances by Dennis Buzukja and Jose Delgado as he tries to get back on track in this one. Matthews stands 5-foot-8 with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 106 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 106 Odds: Yadier del Valle-Connor Matthews Odds
Yadier del Valle: -470
Connor Matthews: +360
Over 2.5 rounds: -135
Under 2.5 rounds: +105
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Why Yadier del Valle Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Antonio Monteiro – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Yadier del Valle is finally making his long-awaited UFC debut as an undefeated prospect following his impressive win on Dana White's Contender Series. Just eight fights into his pro career, he's already shown a great versatility in his game while becoming very well-rounded in all areas with two wins by finish, two wins by submission, and four wins by way of decision.
Yadier del Valle is extremely aggressive in the way he engages opponents as he looks to physically overwhelm them with his pressure. Whether it's backing opponents up against the fence or shooting relentlessly for takedowns, he favors positions where he's able to force opponents to make quick decisions and likely dangerous mistakes.
To win this fight, del Valle can stick to his usual game plan and be the more physically dominant fighter in this one. However, Matthews does have a great guillotine and overall submission skills, so del Valle will have to be careful in choosing where he puts his head during some of these wrestling entries.
Why Connor Matthews Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Jose Delgado – TKO (ground strikes, R1)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
Connor Matthews is still searching for his first UFC win after two disappointing knockout losses to start his tenure. He's a very skilled grappler with five of his wins coming by way of submission, but he hasn't been able to be an impending force when it comes to finding the takedown. He's been forced to stand and strike through his first appearances, so hopefully he's more successful in taking this fight to the ground where he's most comfortable.
Matthews will have to be patient in dealing with an aggressive fighter like del Valle, allowing his opponent to over-extend himself and make mistakes. Matthews is a smart enough fighter to realize the openings and capitalize on the them, so it wouldn't be smart to bet against a guy that's been in this position before. He's also seen what a loss in the UFC feels like, so he'll be very motivated to get this first win as the underdog.
Final Yadier del Valle-Connor Matthews Prediction & Pick
We should have ourselves a fun scrap in the Featherweight Division as both of these men are hungry and relatively new to the UFC. Connor Matthews has lost his first two bouts with the promotion, but it's the experience over his opponent that he's hoping can carry him to a win. Yadier del Valle, on the other hand, is looking to keep his spotless record and continue his destructive path in his new division.
In terms of their lead-ups to this fight, Yadier del Valle has certainly been the more impressive prospect and the betting lines reflect that. In terms of his striking, he's far more intent on taking the center of the octagon and leading the dance. He's also very dangerous with his ground-and-pound when he's able to posture up, so it could spell trouble against a fighter like Connor Matthews who's content with fighting off his back.
Still, we have to side with the betting favorite in Yadier del Valle to win this fight off pure aggression and output.
Final Yadier del Valle-Connor Matthews Prediction & Pick: Yadier del Valle (-470); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-135)
