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The UFC is back in action from The Apex in Las Vegas as we're set for another Fight Night of betting predictions and picks, this next one coming in the Women's Strawweight (115) Division. New Jersey's Elise Reed will take on Brazil's Denise Gomes as both fighters look to mount winning streaks. Check the UFC odds series for our Reed-Gomes prediction and pick.
Elise Reed (8-4) has gone 4-4 inside the UFC since 2021. She's alternated wins and losses since joining the promotion, most recently earning a unanimous decision victory of veteran Jessica Penne. She'll hope to notch back-t0-back wins for the first time as the heavy betting underdog in this matchup. Reed stands 5-foot-3 with a 63-inch reach.
Denise Gomes (10-3) is 4-2 against UFC competition since debuting in 2022. She's fought increasingly tougher opponents and owns signature wins over Yazmin Jauregui, Eduarda Moura, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. She'll look for her third-straight win and a potential top-15 ranking. Gomes stands 5-foot-2 with a 63-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 106 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 106 Odds: Elise Reed-Denise Gomes Odds
Elise Reed: +410
Denise Gomes: -550
Over 2.5 rounds: -188
Under 2.5 rounds: +145
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Why Elise Reed Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jessica Penne – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO
Elise Reed turned in a very balanced performance against a UFC veteran in Jessica Penne, out-striking her 229-98 throughout the fight. She managed to land 63 more significant strikes than her opponent as she looked extremely sharp with her kickboxing. While she was taken down once, she didn't allow it to affect her game plan and cruised to a convincing decision.
During this fight, Elise Reed will have to improve upon her prior performance and be even more aggressive with her striking. Gomes is a much more powerful and erratic striker than some of her previous opponents, so she won't have as much time to settle into her stance and strike from a clean pocket.
Movement with the octagon and around Gomes will be key for Reed as her best chance to win this fight will be to counter Gomes on her entries. If she can manage to remain out of range while capitalizing whenever Gomes is reaching, she could have a solid chance to win this fight behind a 53% career striking accuracy.
Why Denise Gomes Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Karolina Kowalkiewicz – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO
Denise Gomes faced a streaking Karolina Kowalkiewicz during her last bout and made the stand-up game look relatively easy. Still, Kowalkiewicz was a tougher opponent than Gomes had expected and she sustained some damage throughout that fight. She can't afford to do the same against a consistent striker in Elise Reed as she's expected to be the aggressor pushing the action during this fight.
Gomes is far more powerful than her opponent with two of her UFC wins coming by way of knockout. She's also very active in peppering the body and will hurt opponents from the clinch, so expect Gomes to keep moving forward during this fight and constantly forcing Reed to engage with her.
If Gomes is able to remain sharp and move her head off the center line, she should be able to get the best of Reed during their striking exchanges. Her hand speed is much faster and she's the better striker during chaotic exchanges, so expect her to thrive during those situations.
Final Elise Reed-Denise Gomes Prediction & Pick
Both fighters are coming into this bout following a win and both are confident in their striking skillset during this particular matchup. Neither woman favors the ground game and both are willing to trade strikes in the pocket, so we should be in for a high-paced fight that sees both fighter land some exchanges.
However, the better odds are very telling in this one as Denise Gomes is the faster, more explosive striker on the feet. Elise Reed is much more technically sound, but she tends to sink into a rhythm as she tries to find her kickboxing groove. I think Gomes is a particularly bad matchup for this as she tends to blitz opponents with combinations while darting in and out of range. She's also not afraid to back opponents along the fence and begin unloading strikes in seeking the finish.
For our final prediction, we have to roll with Denise Gomes to get the win as the heavy favorite. Her skillset is much more varied and she'll have more ways of controlling this fight through three rounds as she wins a likely decision.
Final Elise Reed-Denise Gomes Prediction & Pick: Denise Gomes (-550); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-188)
