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UFC Vegas 106: Gilbert Burns versus Michael Morales continues the prelims with a fight between HyunSung Park and Carlos Hernandez in the flyweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Park-Hernandez prediction and pick.
HyunSung Park (9-0) continued his perfect run by stopping Shannon Ross with a body shot in round two of his last fight, displaying sharp finishing instincts. Now, Park looks to extend his unbeaten streak and break into the flyweight rankings with another statement win against Carlos Hernandez at UFC Vegas 106.
Carlos Hernandez (10-4) snapped a two-fight skid with a gritty split decision win over Nyamjargal Tumendemberel in his last outing, bouncing back from losses to Rei Tsuruya and Tatsuro Taira. Now, Hernandez looks to build momentum and hand HyunSung Park his first defeat at UFC Vegas 106 this Saturday night.
Here are the UFC Vegas 106 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 106 Odds: HyunSung Park-Carlos Hernandez Odds
HyunSung Park: -185
Carlos Hernandez: +154
Over 2.5 rounds: -238
Under 2.5 rounds: +180
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Why HyunSung Park Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Shannon Ross – KO/TKO R2
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 8 (4 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
HyunSung Park enters UFC Vegas 106 with an undefeated 9-0 record and the momentum of a second-round finish over Shannon Ross, showcasing his sharp striking and finishing instincts. Statistically, Park holds a slight edge in striking output, landing 4.15 significant strikes per minute compared to Carlos Hernandez’s 3.90, while absorbing the same amount of damage at 3.43 per minute. More importantly, Park’s defensive awareness is superior, successfully defending 59% of incoming strikes, whereas Hernandez only defends 50%.
Grappling could be a deciding factor, and Park’s 85% takedown defense gives him a clear advantage against Hernandez, who only completes 21% of his takedown attempts. Park also attempts far more submissions-2.6 per three rounds, compared to Hernandez’s 0.2-demonstrating a more aggressive and versatile ground game. Hernandez has struggled to impose his wrestling at the UFC level and has been inconsistent, with a recent split decision win following two consecutive losses. Park’s ability to dictate the range, stuff takedowns, and threaten with submissions makes him a more dynamic and reliable fighter. Expect Park to control the action, outwork Hernandez on the feet, and capitalize on grappling exchanges to remain undefeated this weekend.
Why Carlos Hernandez Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Nyamjargal Tumendemberel – DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 4 (4 SUB)
Carlos Hernandez has the skill set and experience to hand HyunSung Park his first professional loss at UFC Vegas 106. Hernandez’s edge lies in his wrestling and ability to control the tempo of a fight. Averaging 1.60 takedowns per 15 minutes, he slightly outpaces Park in this department and has shown the grit to push through adversity, as evidenced by his recent split decision win over Nyamjargal Tumendemberel. Hernandez’s striking is efficient, connecting on 45% of his significant strikes, and he uses his 67-inch reach to keep opponents honest on the feet.
While Park is a dangerous finisher, Hernandez’s durability and average fight time of 12:01 suggest he thrives in longer bouts, where he can wear down opponents with pressure and persistence. His takedown defense of 67% is respectable, and his ability to mix up striking and grappling could disrupt Park’s rhythm. If Hernandez can impose his wrestling and avoid Park’s submission threats, he has a clear path to victory by grinding out rounds and outpointing Park on the scorecards. Expect Hernandez to use his experience, wrestling, and composure to edge out a hard-fought decision and pull off the upset this weekend.
Final HyunSung Park-Carlos Hernandez Prediction & Pick
HyunSung Park vs. Carlos Hernandez at UFC Vegas 106 is a classic matchup of an undefeated prospect against a gritty veteran. Park enters as the slight favorite, boasting a perfect 9-0 record, higher striking output (4.15 significant strikes per minute), and superior defensive stats-defending 59% of strikes compared to Hernandez’s 50%. Park’s finishing ability is notable, with recent wins by both KO and submission, and he attempts far more submissions per fight (2.6 per 15 minutes) than Hernandez (0.2), giving him a clear edge in grappling aggression. His 85% takedown defense should help him keep the fight where he wants it and neutralize Hernandez’s wrestling attempts.
Hernandez, however, is durable and experienced, with a 10-4 record and a knack for pushing fights the distance; his average fight time is 12:01 compared to Park’s 7:18. He lands at a similar striking rate (3.90 per minute, 45% accuracy) and has a slight reach advantage. If Hernandez can turn this into a drawn-out, grinding affair and mix in his wrestling (1.60 takedowns per 15 minutes), he could test Park’s cardio and composure. Ultimately, Park’s youth, finishing instincts, and defensive edge make him the pick to remain unbeaten, likely by decision in a competitive bout.
Final HyunSung Park-Carlos Hernandez Prediction & Pick: HyunSung Park (-185), Over 2.5 Rounds (-238)
