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UFC Vegas 106: Gilbert Burns versus Michael Morales kicks off the prelims with a fight between Tecia Pennington and Luana Pinheiro in the strawweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Pennington-Pinheiro prediction and pick.
Tecia Pennington (14-7) rebounded from a close split decision loss to Tabatha Ricci by outpointing former champ Carla Esparza at UFC 307, sending Esparza into retirement. Now, Pennington aims to build momentum against Luana Pinheiro at UFC Vegas 106, looking to notch her second straight win in the strawweight division.
Luana Pinheiro (11-4) enters UFC Vegas 106 on a tough three-fight skid, most recently dropping a unanimous decision to Gillian Robertson after submission and TKO losses to Angela Hill and Amanda Ribas. Pinheiro now seeks to halt her slide and reassert herself in the strawweight division against Tecia Pennington.
Here are the UFC Vegas 106 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 106 Odds: Tecia Pennington-Luana Pinheiro Odds
Tecia Pennington: -325
Luana Pinheiro: +260
Over 2.5 rounds: -475
Under 2.5 rounds: +325
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Why Tecia Pennington Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Carla Esparza – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 2 (1 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Tecia Pennington is strongly favored to defeat Luana Pinheiro at UFC Vegas 106, and the numbers back up the odds. Pennington’s striking volume and accuracy are clear advantages. She lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute at a 47% clip, compared to Pinheiro’s 3.42 at 40%. Defensively, Pennington absorbs fewer strikes per minute and matches Pinheiro’s 61% striking defense, making her more effective at both delivering and avoiding damage. In her last fight, Pennington outstruck former champion Carla Esparza and showcased her ability to maintain pace and composure in close contests, a skill that has defined her career.
Pinheiro, meanwhile, enters on a three-fight skid, struggling particularly with defensive grappling and cardio. Her recent losses have exposed vulnerabilities-most notably, her inability to consistently defend takedowns or maintain effectiveness in later rounds. While Pinheiro’s grappling is statistically superior, Pennington’s takedown defense (63%) and her ability to keep fights standing play into her strengths. With Pennington’s experience against elite strawweights and her proven durability, she is poised to control the fight’s tempo and distance, outwork Pinheiro over three rounds, and secure a decision victory this weekend.
Why Luana Pinheiro Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Gillian Robertson – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 7 (2 KO/TKO/5 SUB)
Luana Pinheiro has the tools to pull off an upset against Tecia Pennington at UFC Vegas 106. Pinheiro’s grappling prowess stands out-she secures takedowns at a much higher rate (33% success, 0.91 per 15 minutes) than Pennington (14% success, 0.57 per 15 minutes), and she’s more active in hunting for submissions, attempting 0.7 per 15 minutes compared to Pennington’s 0.1. Pinheiro’s 62-inch reach also gives her a slight edge in striking exchanges, allowing her to keep Pennington at bay and set up her entries for takedowns.
Despite her recent skid, Pinheiro has faced tough competition and remains dangerous, especially early. She owns seven first-round finishes in her career, demonstrating her ability to capitalize on openings quickly. If Pinheiro can impose her grappling and avoid extended striking exchanges, she can neutralize Pennington’s volume and control the fight’s tempo. Her takedown defense (69%) also suggests she can keep the fight where she wants it. With her back against the wall and the pressure to break her losing streak, Pinheiro’s urgency and skillset make her a live underdog poised to surprise the veteran Pennington this weekend in Las Vegas.
Final Tecia Pennington-Luana Pinheiro Prediction & Pick
Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro at UFC Vegas 106 shapes up as a compelling clash of styles, with Pennington entering as a significant favorite. Pennington’s edge is rooted in her high-volume striking and defensive consistency. She lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute at a 47% accuracy, while absorbing just 3.53 per minute and defending 61% of incoming shots-numbers that suggest she can control the range and pace against Pinheiro, who lands 3.42 per minute at 40% and absorbs more strikes overall. Pennington’s recent win over Carla Esparza, where she landed 80 of 150 significant strikes at a 53% clip, highlights her ability to outwork opponents over three rounds.
Pinheiro, meanwhile, brings a more aggressive grappling approach, with a higher takedown rate (33% success) and greater submission activity. However, she has struggled to impose her game in recent losses and has been less effective at neutralizing volume strikers. While Pinheiro’s reach and takedown defense (69%) offer some tools to challenge Pennington, the odds and recent form lean toward Pennington’s experience and durability, carrying her to a decision win. Expect Pennington to use her striking output and movement to keep Pinheiro at bay, outpointing her over three rounds in what should be a competitive but clear victory for “Tiny Tornado.”
Final Tecia Pennington-Luana Pinheiro Prediction & Pick: Tecia Pennington (-325), Over 2.5 Rounds (-475)
