NBA Playoffs odds: Warriors vs. Lakers prediction, odds, pick, more

Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 (-112)

Over 218.5 Points (-110)

Under 218.5 Points (-110)

Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread

While both teams are hot coming into this matchup, the Warriors' hot streak is significantly more impressive.

The Dubs closed the season by beating the Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz, and Memphis Grizzlies, three teams jostling for playoff positioning. They covered in all six of their last games. The Lakers closed the season by beating two tanking teams and the Indiana Pacers without their two best players. L.A. only covered in three of the last six.

The Warriors closed on such a high note thanks to a combination of their usual stout defense and Stephen Curry's unstoppable firepower. They'll rely on both to get a win in this play-in game.

The Warriors finished as a top-five defense in terms of defensive rating Golden State's true strength is defending inside the arc. Steve Kerr's group held opponents to the third-lowest field goal percentage in the NBA and only 47.2 points per game in the painted area per matchup.

This could spell trouble for the Lakers, who rely on pounding the paint to rack up points. The Lakers get the seventh-most points in the paint per game in the league, so if Golden State can hold firm down low and slow L.A.'s interior scorers, they'll have a great shot at recording an upset.

On the offensive end, all eyes will be on Steph Curry. In his last five regular-season games, Curry averaged 37.2 points on 45.4% shooting from the field and 37.5% from 3.

Curry has been so good and so key to the Warriors' success to close the season that LeBron James personally claimed he should be the MVP. James might have a point, as the Warriors pretty much only win when Steph plays well.

In the 63 games Curry played in the regular season, he scored below 25 points in 13 of them. The Warriors went only 4-9 in those games. When Curry scored 25 or more, the Dubs went 33-17.

Curry is the Warriors' only source of consistent offense, and he has been absolutely cooking of late. It's tough to bet against the best shooter in NBA history at any time, and especially right now.

Why The Lakers Could Cover The Spread

As it has been for most of the season, LeBron James (probable) and Anthony Davis (questionable) are on the Lakers' injury report.

While it's a bit jarring to see the names of the Lakers' two biggest players on the report, it's highly unlikely that either of them sit this game out. Both stars should suit up in an effort to avoid an elimination game.

Both James and Davis were key in the Lakers closing the season on such a high run. James and Davis were the two highest scorers in both of the purple and gold's last wins.

When healthy, the Lakers won games thanks to strong defensive efforts and getting enough points out of their two stars to pull away. The elite defense ensured the offense would never have to put up massive numbers to succeed.

Frank Vogel's group ranks highly in nearly every defensive category. The Lakers finished with the best defensive rating in the NBA and ranked eighth in opponent field goal percentage. Most importantly for this game, L.A. allowed opposing 3-point shooters to connect on only 35.2% of their attempts, the fourth-lowest percentage in the league.

The Dubs live and die by the 3-pointer, getting a whopping 38.5% of their points from deep. Just as the Warriors will try to shut down the Lakers in the paint, the L.A. will focus on limiting Golden State from deep. The Lakers have a better track record here of being more consistent in slowing shooters, giving them a slight upper hand.

On offense, the Lakers obviously need quality efforts from LeBron and Davis, but role-player shooting will be huge. The stars will get there points, but if one or more Lakers role players can score 15-20 points, their odds of winning this game are much higher.

In a game that should be low scoring, Kyle Kuzma, Dennis Schroder, or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope can push the Lakers over the edge with a solid scoring night.

Final Warriors-Lakers Prediction & Pick

As much as it pains me to essentially put all my faith in one player, Steph Curry has been that good of late. The Lakers have looked shaky even in their wins, and I'm not convinced LeBron James and Anthony Davis are fully healthy. Curry, on the other hand, has looked unstoppable. I like how the Warriors match up with a Lakers team that shoots it poorly from deep, and I fully expect this game to come down to the wire. If this game was in San Francisco, I'd be tempted to play the Warriors ML. Instead, I'll take the Warriors with the points, as this could come down to the last possession.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: LAL 108, GSW 106 (GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +5.5)