The Los Angeles Lakers begin their campaign to repeat on Sunday afternoon against the Phoenix Suns. It’s time to continue our NBA Playoffs odds series and make a Lakers-Suns prediction and pick for the first postseason game in the desert.
The Lakers ended the regular season with a record of 42-20 overall and are 31-40-1 against the spread. Los Angeles is coming off a win against the Golden State Warriors to clinch the seventh seed in the Western Conference.
The Suns finished with a record of 52-21 overall and 42-28-2 against the spread. Phoenix won their last regular season game against the San Antonio Spurs.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Lakers-Suns odds.
NBA Odds: Lakers-Suns Odds
Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 (-110)
Phoenix Suns -2.5 (-110)
Over 213.5 Points (-110)
Under 213.5 Points (-110)
Why The Lakers Could Cover The Spread
The purple-and-gold should be motivated to to prove to the world that they are ready to defend their title
The Lakers closed their regular season on a high-note by winning six straight games, including an impressive win against the Suns without LeBron James. Los Angeles' most impressive facet on this run was their lockdown defense. The Lakers held five out of six of their last opponents to below their scoring average.
Frank Vogel's group gave up the second least points per game in the regular season, only trailing to the Knicks. The Lakers held opponents to the eighth lowest field goal percentage and the fourth lowest three-point percentage in the NBA.
The Lakers three-point defense will be especially important in this matchup against a sharp=shooting Suns team. In games where Anthony Davis is active, the Lakers have held three-point shooters to below 37% shooting in four of their of five matchups.
Davis is not only a key on the defensive end, but the offensive end as well. Los Angeles badly needs the big man to put up numbers in their title defense.
The spotlight might be on James, but the key to Lakers wins has been Davis' efficiency. When Davis shoots 50% from the field or better, the Lakers are 17-4. When he shoots under 50%, L.A. is only 7-8.
LeBron will make his impact on a game, especially in the postseason. As long as Davis performs well, the Lakers have a great chance of taking home court advantage.
Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
While the Lakers have been elite defensively, the Suns have been nearly as good.
Phoenix allowed the seventh least points per game and were elite at guarding the perimeter, holding opponents to the fifth lowest three-point percentage in the NBA.
More importantly, the Suns defense held their own on the interior, giving up 47.3 points per game in the paint, the 11th least in the league.
Against a Lakers team that depends on interior scoring, the Suns will have to continue to contest shots at the rim in order to take Game 1.
On the offensive end, the Suns have the firepower to back down a tough Lakers defense. Phoenix averaged the seventh most points per game and recorded the third most assists, mostly thanks to Chris Paul.
Paul has been a point god to close the regular season, averaging 18.3 points and 10.0 assists in his last seven games on 54.3% shooting. If anyone can break down the tough Lakers defense, it's Paul.
Add in the factor that the Suns have an elite scorer in Devin Booker and an intimidating paint presence in Deandre Ayton, and the Suns offense might be too much to handle for a Lakers team that is still finding their legs with their healthy stars.
Final Lakers-Suns Prediction & Pick
Talking Stick Resort Arena should be rocking on Sunday afternoon. This is the first time the Suns have made the playoffs since 2010, and I expect the home crowd to give Phoenix a serious boost, Add in the factor that the Suns owned the third best spread record in the league and the fact that the Lakers have been unimpressive of late, and all signs point to Phoenix taking Game 1. Give me Phoenix as slight favorites at home to take a 1-0 series lead behind an excellent game from Chris Paul.
FINAL PICK: PHOENIX SUNS -2.5: PHX 108, LAL 103
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