Isaiah Collier is heading into the 2024 NBA Draft after a very productive season at USC. Despite the talent he showed and the numbers he put up as a freshman, he seems likely to slide into the later parts of the first round.

Collier averaged 16.3 points, 4.3 assists, 2.9 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game while shooting 49.0 percent from the field in his lone collegiate season. There were only seven other freshmen in the last 20 years to post those per-game stats and match Collier's true shooting percentage of 56 percent in a season. Their names: Kyrie Irving, Trae Young, John Wall, Ben Simmons, D'Angelo Russell, Dennis Smith Jr. and Rodney Stuckey. That’s a group with multiple first-overall picks and all besides Stuckey, who went 15th overall, were top-10 selections.

However, in the latest ESPN mock draft from Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo, Collier slides all the way to the 26th pick, held by the Washington Wizards.

Woo writes the following: “Collier does have interest from teams in the late lottery, but there are realistic scenarios in which he falls toward the back of the first round. It can be difficult for competitive teams to find minutes for a point guard whose key areas for improvement are decision-making and long-range shooting — logically, Collier might need G League time, particularly if he lands with a playoff-level team. He is a gifted athlete and passer with good size on the ball.”

Collier is generally ranked on big boards in the mid-first-round range, so falling down to the late 20s would be a pretty shocking development. While he is far from the perfect prospect, he has a lot of upside, which should make his stock rise in a draft regarded as weaker than most.

Isaiah Collier's 2024 NBA Draft stock slipping in pre-draft process

Collier had a lot to handle at USC and did a really good job creating offense for himself and others. He's a strong, hard-nosed point guard who is never afraid to take it into the paint. He's more of a below-the-rim finisher than above, using slick moves to get around or shoot over defenders. His playmaking is solid, too, as he knows where defenders will rotate once he gets a step on his man. On defense, Collier can be tough on the ball when he locks in. He probably won’t be an elite defensive guard but he can certainly hold his own, especially with older teammates easing his burden on offense.

It's true that Collier has work to do as a perimeter shooter and that his lack of top-tier explosive athleticism will make it harder to be a pure slasher from the point guard spot in the NBA. However, he has the talent to be regarded as a top-10 prospect in this year’s class, especially given how young he is. If he rounds out his game even a little bit, he could absolutely be a fringe star who creates some offense and makes winning plays.

The Wizards landing Isaiah Collier with the 26th pick would be an absolute steal. It seems too good to be true — and that’s because it probably is.