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The Charlotte Hornets have two picks in next month's 2023 NBA Draft. The first (i.e. the one with a 12.5 percent chance of landing mega-prospect Victor Wembanyama) is the one that everybody cares about; the second—the 27th overall pick, acquired from Denver by way of the Knicks—has flown under the radar. This is perfectly understandable–one pick holds the promise of transforming the entire franchise, while the other holds the promise of adding a nice role player to swim in the wake of the guy who transforms the entire franchise. But, as the playoffs this year have demonstrated, you need the right auxiliary players to support your stars. As such, the Hornets should use their later pick in the NBA Draft on Dayton star DaRon Holmes II who will be the perfect complementary big man from the moment he enters the league.
During his two years at Dayton, Holmes, to put it mildly, kicked ass. Against piddling Atlantic 10 competition, Holmes was probably the most singularly dominant player in all of college basketball. He was more natural disaster than basketball player; big men at George Mason or Fordham would've sooner been able to stop a hurricane than stand up to Holmes in the post.
Last year, Holmes had 89 dunks, the second most in the entire country. As elementary as it sounds, dunks are the truest proxy for functional athleticism—each dunk is a mini-reminder that you've overpowered whatever poor shmuck is in your way. For context, 14 underclassmen besides Holmes have had more than 80 dunks in a season since 2008; 11 of them were picked in the first round and nearly all of them have proven to be useful NBA players besides Tacko Falls and Trayce Jackson-Davis, who is also in this year's draft.
To wit, Holmes isn't merely some gormless dunk automaton; the reason he dunked so many times is because he put himself in position to dunk. It's exceedingly hard to make an impact with off-ball movement as a non-shooting big, but Holmes certainly has found a way. Yes, he lurks in the dunker's spot, but he cleverly slides into open space to make himself available for dump-off passes and flashes to the middle of the paint for floaters or pins smaller defenders for duck-ins. He understands every defense's rules and principles and exploits their blind spots.
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As such, Holmes is the rare college big whose interior scoring will immediately translate to the NBA, even if he won't necessarily equal the 18.4 points per game he averaged last year with Dayton. Whereas a guy like Zach Edey binged on post-ups that he'll never receive in the NBA, Holmes can naturally provide value to any offense.
Similarly, his coordination and intelligence make him an effective dribble hand-off operator. While he's not nearly a Jokic or Sabonis-level playmaker, merely having a big with the smarts to handle the ball a little bit is hugely dangerous; just look at how much Kevon Looney helps the Warriors compared to the since-banished James Wiseman. This modicum of playmaking talent even alleviates some of the spacing concerns around Holmes. As the hub of a dribble hand-off, he demands that defenses pay attention to him, even if it's just to corral the guard he's tangoing with.
But all this talk about DaRon Holmes' offense is merely prelude for the real meat of what makes him such a special prospect in the NBA Draft: he's an outrageous defender. His defense is great in a versatile, portable way. Holmes won't hunker down in drop coverage and lockdown the pain like Rudy Gobert or Brook Lopez, but his quickness empowers him to thrive in just about any scheme. Hedge and recover? Holmes is your guy. Wanna blitz? Holmes can do that for you. Switch? You already know.
Beyond his comfort venturing out to the perimeter, Holmes is an excellent rim protector. As a freshman, his 8.7 percent block rate made him one of only 18 players to block that many shots while playing more than 60 percent of available minutes. As a sophomore, his 6.5 percent block rate demonstrates that teams learned their lesson from last year and stopped challenging him inside. All the things that make Holmes a very good offensive player—canny court sense, quick feet, fast reflexes—make him a great rim protector.
On the whole, it's hard to imagine Holmes ever being an All-Star, but it's even harder to imagine him being a bad player. Being a good NBA big requires a very specific skillset, the ability to make an impact without being a disturbance. If the Hornets luck out into being able to draft Wembanyama, DaRon Holmes is exactly the kind of invisibly good big who can sop up the physical grind and spare Wemby that punishment. If the Hornets are left with a guy like Brandon Miller or a Thompson twin, Holmes is the kind of deft pick-and-roll partner who can unlock their off-the-dribble game. The Hornets need to draft DaRon Holmes with the 27th pick, lest they regret passing on him for the next decade.
