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The Dallas Mavericks are no strangers to drama. However, this year’s Play-In Tournament carries a different kind of weight. After shaking the NBA landscape midseason by trading franchise cornerstone Luka Doncic for superstar big man Anthony Davis, Dallas reinvented itself on the fly. Of course, the addition of veteran sniper Klay Thompson added a championship pedigree to a team desperate for identity and cohesion. Now, standing between the Mavs and a playoff berth is a gritty Memphis Grizzlies squad that has owned the season series. The Grizzlies pose a stylistic nightmare for this revamped Dallas roster. Can the Mavs extend their season—or will the Grizzlies slam the door shut?
An Uneven Road to the 10th Seed
The Mavs wrapped up their 2024–25 campaign with a 39–43 record. That was good enough for 10th in the Western Conference. The season was a tale of two halves: the pre-trade era, marked by Luka’s brilliance but defensive lapses, and the post-trade stretch, where Davis anchored a more physical, interior-oriented squad. Well, at least whenever he was not sidelined with injury. Yes, flashes of brilliance emerged. That said, chemistry and depth remained concerns. Still, the Mavs kept their season alive with a strong performance in the first Play-In matchup. They defeated the Sacramento Kings, 120–106, behind solid outings from Davis and Thompson. They also had a lot of support from PJ Washington and Brandon Williams. On the flip side, their next challenge—a Memphis team that beat them 3 out of 4 times in the regular season—looms large.
Here we will discuss the four Dallas Mavericks bold predictions for their 2025 NBA Play-in match vs. the Memphis Grizzlies.
1. Anthony Davis Will Put Up Big Numbers—But Will Run Out of Gas
Anthony Davis has been every bit the superstar-level presence Dallas hoped for when they made the blockbuster deal. Against Sacramento, he tallied 27 points, nine rebounds, and three blocks. He pretty much dominated both ends of the floor. Expect Davis to come out aggressive once again. This is especially true given Memphis’ lack of true interior size. The Grizzlies will rely on Jaren Jackson Jr and Zach Edey to slow Davis down. Of course, that’s much easier said than done.
Still, we think Davis’ impact will be muted in the second half. The physical toll of carrying both the offensive and defensive load will start to wear him down late in the game. This is especially true as Memphis ups the pace and forces him to defend in space. AD might finish with gaudy stats—say, 30 points and 12 boards—but don’t expect him to dominate the fourth quarter. Fatigue and Memphis’ aggressive rotations will sap his late-game efficiency.
2. Klay Thompson Will Briefly Catch Fire
When the Mavs signed Klay Thompson, they were banking on his ability to provide stability, leadership, and shot-making under pressure. In the win over Sacramento, Klay looked vintage. He hit five three-pointers and spaced the floor perfectly alongside Davis. Against Memphis, Klay’s playoff pedigree and quick-trigger release will be vital once again.
Bold prediction? He’ll have one of those “throwback” quarters—perhaps scoring 12+ points in the second or third quarter to give Dallas a surge. However, Memphis is too locked in to let him keep going. Expect Desmond Bane and John Konchar to hound him off screens and force him into tough off-balance looks. Klay will score in bunches, but his overall shooting percentage will dip under 40 percent as the game wears on. His hot hand will flare—but not burn long enough to change the outcome.
3. The Mavs Will Struggle from Beyond the Arc
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Three-point shooting has been Dallas’ Achilles’ heel all season long. Even with Thompson in the lineup, the Mavs ranked just 15th in the league in three-point percentage. The spacing has been clunky at times, especially when Davis operates from the high post or low block. And beyond Klay, the supporting cast has been maddeningly inconsistent—Dante Exum, Williams, and Washington have all seen streaks and slumps.
Against a swarming Memphis defense, don’t expect things to improve. The Grizzlies' ability to contest without fouling and recover quickly on closeouts will once again show up in this Play-In battle. We think Dallas shoots under 35 percent from three and makes fewer than 10 triples for the game—digging themselves into a math problem they can't solve.
4. Memphis Will Win the Rebounding Battle—and the Game
For all the talk about Anthony Davis’ dominance, rebounding has been a recurring concern for Dallas. The Mavs rank in the bottom third of the league in rebounding. That trend continued even in their win over Sacramento, where they were outrebounded but bailed out by hot shooting.
Against Memphis, that won’t fly. The Grizzlies—led by the relentless hustle of Jackson Jr, Edey, and Santi Aldama will consistently win the 50/50 balls. Expect Memphis to finish with at least a +5 edge on the glass, turning missed shots into momentum-swinging putbacks and open threes.
And with those extra possessions will come the difference. Memphis will grind this game into their style—physical, fast, and frantic. By the final buzzer, the Mavs will have worn down, their spacing collapsed, their legs tired, and their season over.
Looking Ahead
The Mavs made a huge bet when they traded away Doncic. They doubled down on defense, leadership, and interior presence. But in the end, against a battle-tested and better-balanced Grizzlies squad, the gamble will fall short. Davis and the injured Kyrie Irving may be the future in Dallas, and Klay’s firepower still has value—but in this Play-In finale, the present will belong to Memphis.
