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The Dallas Mavericks’ revamped roster featuring rookie forward Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, and Kyrie Irving is not generating strong postseason confidence from ESPN.
In ESPN’s latest forecast for the 2025–26 NBA season, the Mavericks received a modest projection despite selecting Flagg with the No. 1 overall pick in June. ESPN’s Tim MacMahon suggested that while Flagg will have an immediate role, expectations should remain tempered during his first year.
“Flagg is projected to be an instant starter,” MacMahon wrote. “But he won't be expected to carry the team as a rookie surrounded by accomplished veterans, most prominently former No. 1 pick and 10-time All-Star Anthony Davis, who was the headliner in the return package for Luka Doncic.”
Davis was acquired in February in a blockbuster trade that sent Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers. Dallas missed the playoffs last season following their 2024 NBA Finals appearance.
The projection places significant weight on the uncertain status of Kyrie Irving, who remains sidelined after suffering a torn left ACL in March.
“The biggest factor in the Mavs' playoff positioning, or lack thereof, could be the impact made by another former No. 1 pick and future Hall of Famer,” MacMahon continued. “When will Kyrie Irving return from his torn left ACL? If it's this season, can he return to All-Star form for a team that needs his offensive creation?”
ESPN gives Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, and Kyrie Irving low playoff expectations
According to ESPN’s odds model, the Mavericks have a 73.1% chance of finishing in the Western Conference play-in range (seeds 7–10). They hold a 23.1% chance of securing a playoff spot outright (seeded 5 or 6), and just a 3.8% chance of missing the postseason altogether. Their odds of finishing in the top four and earning home-court advantage are listed at 0%.
ESPN also predicted how many playoff series the trio of Flagg, Davis, and Irving will win together:
- 0 series: 7.7%
- 1 series: 30.8%
- 2 series: 26.9%
- 3 series: 19.2%
- 4 series: 3.8%
- 5 series: 7.7%
- 6 or more series: 3.8%
In addition to playoff odds, ESPN projected Flagg’s long-term career trajectory, including predictions for his first All-Star selection, MVP chances, number of championships, teams played for, and his ranking among NBA players after his rookie season.
Despite the tempered outlook, Flagg enters the league as one of the most highly anticipated rookies in recent memory. The 18-year-old is expected to contribute immediately on both ends of the floor alongside Davis, who remains the team’s centerpiece. Dallas also added veteran guard D’Angelo Russell to help stabilize the backcourt while Irving remains unavailable.
The Mavericks open training camp in October with preseason play to follow. As Flagg begins his NBA career and Irving works toward a possible return, Dallas will look to outperform the early projections and push back into the playoff mix.
