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The Golden State Warriors will need every minute that Stephen Curry is on the floor to have an impact, now bound to return to his MVP ways after the departure of Kevin Durant and an injury that will leave Klay Thompson sidelined until the All-Star break.
Backtracking to three years ago, Curry was coming off the first unanimous MVP season in NBA history, one he achieved by blowing records out of the water, burying 402 trifectas, and leading the Warriors to a regular season record 73 wins in 2015-16.
Back then it was only Curry, Thompson, and a much younger Draymond Green spearheading the way to another title run, one they lost in a disastrous manner after blowing a 3-1 lead. Yet this 2019-20 season brings home an opportunity for Curry to reset, get away from all the superteam hoopla, turn the sprinkler systems back on and make it rain like there's no tomorrow, as the Warriors will be largely dependent on his offensive contributions to make a dent in a tough Western Conference.
With Durant sitting out the year with an Achilles injury, and the likes of James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, and LeBron James sharing their offensive greatness with Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Anthony Davis, respectively, the coast is relatively clear for the two-time MVP to add yet another trophy to his cornucopia of lifetime achievements.
Curry will be tasked to compete against reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is coming off an admirable 60-win season with the Milwaukee Bucks. The Warriors will be hard-pressed to sniff that many wins this season, consisting only of a handful veterans and a slew of young players, so Curry will have to make each of his stats count, as long as they're leading to wins and a spot in the postseason.
The Warriors will count with the left for dead narrative, now that most critics and pundits have even toyed with the idea of leaving Golden State out of the playoff race. Yet Curry will need to put up eye-popping numbers to win over Antetokounmpo, especially if the latter keeps up the same level of play he exhibited last season.
To replicate the 2015-16 season is asking for too much, given that the Warriors were still counting with Thompson's elite perimeter game to give opponents a pick-your-poison element that made Golden State a formidable and at times indestructible foe. Yet playing without Thompson will come with the benefit of more shot attempts, more trips to the foul line, and more assists — considering that Curry is bound to get more attention from opponents as the most dangerous player on the floor.
That will also come with a boatload of turnovers, likely picking up above three per game after turning it over only 2.8 times a night last season while playing off the ball more often.
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Curry's shooting volume has already been trending up in the past few years, even with Durant on the floor. The 31-year-old attempted 11.2 shots from beyond the arc in 2015-16, but still shot in the neighborhood of 10 per game in the two consequent seasons. In 2018-19, he attempted 11.7 per game — a mark that would put him at a career-high 927 attempts in a season, had he played 79 games as he did in 2015-16 (played in only 69 last season).
The determining factor that could make or break Curry's case as the Most Valuable Player will ironically be his defense. Don't laugh just yet, just hear me out…
Not only did Curry lead the league in scoring (30.1 points per game) in his unanimous MVP season, along with 3-pointers made per game, but he also led the league in steals, beating Ricky Rubio by a hair with an average of 2.14 per game. He was also fourth in the league the season prior.
Curry's steal-to-foul rate has decreased precipitously ever since, which could very well cost him votes this upcoming season. The 6-foot-3 floor general has had his share of foul trouble in the playoffs, but those gambles aren't as prominent in the regular season.
Take for example last season, where Curry posted the second-worst steal-to-foul rate (0.54/1) since his second year in the league (0.48/1). Decreasing his gambles and honing into reading passing lanes correctly will allow Curry to get more opportunities to come up with steals, especially now that teams won't be looking to avoid Thompson as a perimeter defender.
Curry's off-ball defensive awareness could very well prove the key that could bring him from merely being in the MVP conversation to hoisting the long-coveted award at the end of the 2019-20 season.
