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Upsets happen in every sport but more often than not the road team missing an All-Star is going to fall short. These Memphis Grizzlies do not go gently into that good night regardless of circumstance and a win over the Phoenix Suns is the latest example. In fact, the first two road games of the current five-city journey went just fine as far as the standings are concerned. Unfortunately, Ja Morant (shoulder) went down against the New Orleans Pelicans. Thankfully for Taylor Jenkins, Jaren Jackson Jr.'s Grizzlies have been thriving without Morant.
Jackson Jr. has averaged 22.0 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.0 assists in 114 career games without Morant available for the Grizzlies, per StatMuse. Those numbers are up over the last few months. Jackson Jr. has averaged 23.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks in 14 games without Morant this season.
All in less than 30 minutes per night. While the traditional glamour stats may not be eye-popping, Jackson Jr.'s next contract should be at well over $300 million. Memphis can offer a four-year, $147 million extension this summer. However, Jackson Jr. earning Defensive Player of the Year, All-NBA, or NBA MVP honor this season would bump that up to a five-year, $345 million super-max extension.
Dollars paid per minute played should not matter much. The Grizzlies might have two sure-fire NBA All-Stars if Jenkins pushed Jackson Jr. and Morant to tackle a heavier minutes workload. Neither are in the top five of fan voting going into the New Year but both are keeping the miles under a 30 MPG limit.
However, Memphis has not needed to risk it either. They rank fifth in overall efficiency, fourth in offensive efficiency, and fifth in defensive efficiency despite Ja Morant's injury woes.
Grizzlies, Jaren Jackson Jr. going places
That is a title contender's resume but the NBA Playoffs are a roll of the dice that come down to matchups. The 12-deep Grizzlies are not worried. Styles make fights and Jaren Jackson Jr. should win individual battles going off of current trends. Opponents are shooting almost 10% worse from the field when defended by the big man.
Jenkins could expect 28 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.1 blocks, and 1.9 steals per game if Jackson Jr. played 36 minutes. That's All-NBA level production from the 2023 NBA Defensive Player of the Year. It's also worth $300 million, even if the Grizzlies are too good to need Jackson Jr. full-time. Memphis has already chalked up 17 double-digit wins this season, with 14 coming by more than 15 points.
Those blowouts are indicative of the team's identity. Jackson Jr. and Morant, both 25 years old, fit together perfectly as the foundational pillars of the future. The Grizzlies will have no choice but to offer a near-max deal this summer. ‘Trip' is eighth in total Net Rating among players logging more than 24 minutes per night, right above Nikola Jokic. Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown are above Jackson Jr. while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander holds the top spot.
Simply put, Jackson Jr.'s consistent production with or without Ja Morant in the lineup was worthy of a significant raise. An All-NBA Team spot should be all but secured once the 65-games played threshold is cleared. Jackson Jr.'s production uptick in big moments this season means the next paycheck should be a full near-max even if the minutes aren't quite on the same level.
Well, not until the NBA Playoffs at least. The Grizzlies will surely take the gloves, and any minute restrictions, off of their NBA All-Stars when the lights shine brightest.
