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The Memphis Grizzlies are always dubbed as a dangerous team, especially when Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr are at full health. Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case this year, with Morant missing 31. Moreover, the Grizzlies also made a questionable move late in the 2024-25 season when they decided to fire head coach Taylor Jenkins along with some of his assistants.
Firing a coach with nine games left before the playoffs isn't ideal. In fact, Memphis already dropped seven of their last 10 games. It also doesn't help that Memphis is currently jockeying a seat in the top six seeds against the likes of the Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Los Angeles Clippers. It's certainly a tight race that may determine how far this team will go in the playoffs.
Dream scenario: Grizzlies maintain their spot as the sixth seed and draw the Nuggets in the first round
The Grizzlies are barely hanging on the sixth seed. Unfortunately for them, the Timberwolves and Clippers are breathing just below their necks. Nonetheless, Memphis still has a solid chance to keep their spot for as long as they finish their regular season in strong fashion, which is easier said than done. But, the Grizzlies did take a step in the right direction when they recently won their first game, 110-108, at the expense of the Miami Heat under head coach Tuomas Lisalo. It was indeed a much-needed victory since the firing of Jenkins.
Avoiding the Play-In Tournament would make life so much easier for Memphis. They can keep their roster fresh and away from injuries. But more importantly, the team also avoids the risk of missing the playoffs altogether. By maintaining their spot at the sixth seed, there is a good chance they draw the Denver Nuggets in the first round.
Although the Nuggets are one of the top teams in the Western Conference, the Grizzlies are equipped to slow them down. Personnel-wise, Memphis has former Defensive Player of the Year Jackson Jr., young Spanish big man Santi Aldama, and Zach Edey to throw at reigning NBA MVP Nikola Jokic. Moreover, they even have the insurance of Marvin Bagley III if they need an additional big body in the frontcourt.
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Memphis can also exploit the Nuggets' relatively weak perimeter defense. With Morant leading the charge, he will certainly demand some attention from the defense. On the other hand, Desmond Bane, Jaylen Wells, GG Jackson, and Luke Kennard could also play pivotal roles in the possible first-round clash. The Grizzlies have a deep roster and could use it to their advantage against a Nuggets squad that's been struggling on the defensive end.
Nightmare scenario: Memphis falls into the Play-In Tournament
While Memphis has taken itself out of the Play-In Tournament conversation for now, failing to mount a winning streak could see them collapse back into the Play-In. With the team still adjusting to the coaching change, the chances of this scenario becoming a reality is relatively large. Moreover, it also doesn't help that the Grizzlies will have their last three games against the Timberwolves, Nuggets, and Mavericks. All three of them are hungry to win games in their favor due to postseason implications.
By falling into the Play-In, the Grizzlies will surely have their hands full against possibly the Clippers or the Timberwolves. Drawing any of those teams would instantly be a dogfight. Should they survive, they face the winner of the 9th and 10th seed contest, which could either be the Mavs or the Sacramento Kings. The Phoenix Suns might also be a sneaky Play-In squad.
Should the Grizzlies survive, they gain an early clash against two of the top teams in the Western Conference. Based on the 2024-25 season alone, the team has struggled against both the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets. They were swept by the Thunder, going 0-4 in the regular season. On the other hand, the Grizzlies went down 1-3 at the hands of the Rockets. But more importantly, Memphis will have to face any of the two with a homecourt disadvantage.
Originally, Memphis was one of the dark horses in the West, especially with a healthy Morant and Jackson. However, it looks like some front-office moves have negatively affected the team's campaign, from choosing to stay pat at the trade deadline, failing to add a missing piece to their core, to firing Jenkins just nine games before the playoffs roll around. At the end of the day, how far the Grizzlies will go this year should reveal the results of those moves.
