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The Milwaukee Bucks will be entering the 2025 NBA Playoffs as the fifth seed, finishing the 2024-25 season with a 48-34 record. As a result, they will face the number four-seeded Indiana Pacers, a familiar foe who has tormented them in the past. During the regular season, the Bucks took a solid 3-1 victory over their matchups against the Pacers. However, Damian Lillard's absence ultimately alters the complexion of the matchup. For this piece, let's focus on assessing Milwaukee's regular season and four aspects that could shape their first-round series against Indiana.
Milwaukee Bucks regular season: On the edge of disappointment
Entering the 2024-25 season, the Bucks carried championship expectations, especially with their duo of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard having more time together. Furthermore, let's not forget Adrian Griffin's shocking firing, which elevated Doc Rivers as head coach. However, they kicked off the season with a disastrous 2-8 start. But on the bright side, Milwaukee did recover enough to get themselves back into playoff contention, highlighted by winning the NBA Cup title.
While that was enough to give the Bucks momentum to jock for a favorable playoff position in the Eastern Conference, the team announced that Lillard was diagnosed with deep vein thrombosis over a month after the All-Star break. With the All-Star guard sidelined indefinitely, Milwaukee will be forced to march on the rest of the year without their secondary superstar.
There's no question that Lillard's condition has thrown a wrench into the Bucks' championship plans. How the team will fare the rest of the way should also create implications for Giannis' tenure in Milwaukee. Nonetheless, here are some bold predictions on their first-round series against the Pacers.
1. Damian Lillard will be missed
Despite Lillard's absence, Milwaukee found a way to finish the regular season strong with an eight-game winning streak. However, it might be a different story against a dangerous team like the Pacers. For the series, it's safe to say that the Bucks will have a huge hole in their offense without Lillard.
In the 2024-25 season, Lillard averaged 24.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 7.1 assists per game. His shot creation and perimeter shooting were key aspects of the team's success this year. As a result, Milwaukee will be forced to demand from the rest of the team to fill in the void, which will be a herculean task.
Giannis Antetokounmpo's dominance will keep the Bucks competitive
While losing Lillard was a huge blow to the Bucks, a huge edge they have in this series is they have the best player of the series, at least on paper, in two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis has always played well against Indiana, and it has been the same story this year.
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In four games against the Pacers this year, the Greek Freak has put up 30.0 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game. Individually, Giannis should have another monster series that should keep the Bucks afloat. By now, it's a safe bet that Milwaukee will only go as far as he takes them. But even if he dominates the series, Indiana has a solid defensive system, coupled with their depth, to allow them to reassert their mastery over Milwaukee.
The Pacers' offense will overwhelm the Bucks
Speaking of Indiana's depth, the Pacers do have a wide array of weapons to get past Milwaukee. They will certainly lean on their three-headed monster of Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner, all three of whom have the ability to take over the game. Unfortunately for the Bucks, they don't exactly have enough perimeter defenders to contain them.
And while Milwaukee already has plenty to worry about on how to contain the team's formidable trio, Indiana can also rely on the production of Obi Toppin, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, and T.J. McConnell. In order for the Bucks to have a chance, the team must not only get an elite series out of Giannis, but Kyle Kuzma, Brook Lopez, Kevin Porter Jr., Bobby Portis, and possibly Pat Connaughton need to bring out their A-game on a nightly basis. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, that might be too much to ask.
Doc Rivers will get outcoached by Rick Carlisle
On paper, Doc Rivers and Rick Carlisle are relatively equal in terms of accolades. Both coaches are no strangers to winning championships, with Rivers winning one back in 2008 with the Boston Celtics and Carlisle with the Dallas Mavericks in 2011. However, last year, everyone saw how Carlisle helped the Pacers unlock a new level to their game. In the process, Indiana handed Milwaukee a first-round exit in six games at the 2024 NBA Playoffs.
This year, Carlisle and crew will probably write the same story. Rivers will be forced to coach a team without Lillard. Furthermore, he doesn't exactly have plenty of depth to work with, compared to Carlisle's Pacers. In addition to this, Carlisle should be able to come up with solid strategies, while adjusting on the fly, the same weapons that he used to outcoach Rivers.
The Bucks aren't in a favorable position against last year's tormentors, the Pacers. But if Giannis can dominate the series with superhero numbers, then Milwaukee has a slight chance of advancing past the first round. But then again, Indiana is a deep team with plenty of star power that's ready to capitalize. As a result, it's going to be a trial by fire for the Bucks, as they navigate the postseason without Lillard.
