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Recovering from a back injury will usually take a player out for a significant amount of time in the NBA. Against all odds, Michael Porter Jr. is returning in the coming weeks, as reported by Adrian Wojnarowski recently. This news is not only a welcome development for fans of the Denver Nuggets, it's also something great to those in the hobby who have held on to the young star's rookie cards.
Even with his imminent return to the court, there are still some concerns about MPJ, especially after undergoing several back injuries in his career. We strike a balance between those concerns and the potential gain collectors can make from Porter's rookie card stock.
The case for getting Michael Porter Jr. rookie cards
Even before he entered the NBA, Porter was already an intriguing prospect for most teams. With the ability to score anywhere on the court crammed into his elite 6'10” size, the ceiling for this young star was as high as it can get. Unfortunately, a serious back injury lowered his draft stock and derailed his first year in the league with the Nuggets.
After more than a year of recovery, Porter finally suited up for Denver's 2019-20 campaign. While he didn't get much in minutes during the regular season, MPJ would go on to exhibit flashes of his potential as a three-level scored inside the Bubble in Orlando. His Game 2 performance in the first round against the Utah Jazz finally saw the young forward break out and put the NBA on notice.
Michael Porter Jr. 28 Points Full Game 2 Highlights | Jazz vs Nuggets | 2020 NBA Playoffs https://t.co/RAuGtgkhb9 @MPJr pic.twitter.com/BkRLNusWDy
— GD's Highlights (@gdfactoryclips) August 19, 2020
In that game, Porter notched 28 points on 58% shooting from the field and 66% from downtown. He also posted 6 rebounds and a block in 32 minutes on the court. From that point on, NBA card collectors paid attention to his stock in relation to the potential ceiling MPJ can reach as a player and in the card market.
Last season, Porter went on to play 61 games for Denver with 54 of those contests as a starter. In an average of 31.3 minutes, the young star posted 19 points on 54% shooting from the field, 44% from beyond the arc, and 79% from the foul line. He was also contributing 7.3 rebounds and 1.1 assists during that period. And while MPJ had his fair share of deficiencies, most notably on the defensive end of the court, it can't be denied that his ceiling closely resembled that of Kevin Durant – an elite scorer who can make buckets from anywhere on the floor.
This was the state of mind Michael Porter Jr. rookie card collectors had as the current season started. The thing is, nobody expected his back issues to resurface and put him out of action indefinitely. From that point on, Porter's stock in the card market plummeted while the Nuggets' forward took the required time to heal. As a result, those in the hobby who got his stock, especially those numbered and low-population rookie cards at a high price, were left hanging in the air.
But before concluding MPJ is a bust or a cautionary tale in the card market, there are certain details that should be remembered. For starters, the potential to be an elite scorer will always be there. As long as his recovery goes well and Denver affords him sufficient minutes and touches, Porter can get his value right back up.
Denver Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr., is progressing to be cleared for on-court contact within the next week, freeing a path for him to return to the lineup sometime in March, his agent Mark Bartelstein of @PrioritySports tells ESPN. Story: https://t.co/kGgAmFvgZs
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) February 27, 2022
And speaking of Denver, there's no better situation in the NBA than in Mile High City. He is coached by Michael Malone, a no-nonsense individual who will hold him accountable every night. He is surrounded by the best passing big man in the league and a front-runner in this season's MVP race, Nikola Jokic, a player who can help the young forward improve. And with key pieces in Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, and Jamal Murray, who's also slated to return soon, there's no better set of guys for the Porter to play with than with the Nuggets.
Taking all of these details into account, plus his current price in the market, and it'll be criminal not to get those Michael Porter Jr. cards.
The state of Michael Porter Jr. rookie cards
Most collectors have this idea that MPJ's stock dropped hard when news of his back injury hit the market and stayed there the whole time. A three-month graph of the Nuggets' PSA 10 Prizm Silver rookie card from Card Ladder is showing otherwise.
In the data shown above, this particular Michael Porter Jr. rookie card started at $250.25 late last year. A couple of months later and several price changes, that value just went down to $250. That's a measly -0.1% growth of rate over 43 confirmed sales. But while this Silver parallel is doing better than expected, it's MPJ's base PSA 10 Prizm that's up at the moment.
While Porter's PSA 10 base Prizm and its price were all over the place, it still went up from $43 to $43.25 during those three months. Both these cards have shown that even though the Nuggets' forward has been out, his stock didn't go under. It just hibernated and it's waiting for a reason to wake up once again. It seems that with the recent announcement of MPJ's return, the catalyst his cards need to awaken is finally here.
The verdict on Michael Porter Jr. rookie cards
It's easy to believe that Porter's stock in the card market was one to stay away from during the past few months. What's surprising is it didn't lose a lot of value at all. There's a good chance he's going to take some time to get back to form and show flashes of being an elite scorer again later this season, or even the next. The detail to look out for is that his rookie cards don't plunge all the way down.
If this happens, it'll be safe to say that demand is on MPJ's side. If he manages to become consistent again, the market will react positively and hype him up all over again. But before that happens, the wisest course of action is to get his stock while everyone else is preoccupied with other guys in the hobby.
