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The next 25 games will be just about do-or-die for the Philadelphia 76ers. They're not in danger of missing the playoffs but they still have not convincingly proven that they're a title favorite. Joel Embiid and James Harden have made the Sixers one of the best teams in the NBA but that's not their goal. Their path to that highly coveted championship — and just how well they will be able to traverse it — will soon be revealed.
As the All-Star break comes to a close, here are three bold Sixers predictions for the remainder of the season.
3. Tyrese Maxey returns to the starting lineup
Doc Rivers' plan to use three different starting lineups is clearly out the window (if it was even a real thing). At this point in the season, he clearly favors using Tyrese Maxey as the sixth man and De'Anthony Melton in the starting lineup. That could change yet again, though not for each new matchup as he originally suggested.
While the difference in sample size between Sixers' current starting lineup (860 possessions played) and starting lineup to begin the season (345) is quite big, the numbers show that the original starting five is better. It has a +16.3 point differential per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass, while the other one has just a +9.5 point differential.
Interestingly, the lineup with Maxey in it is noticeably better on defense and worse on offense than the one with Melton. Just about any observer would have suspected the opposite. Regardless, the Sixers may find the need to change the lineup. Returning their third-best player to the starting group is the most sensible move to optimize him and the team.
While Rivers isn't the most creative lineup engineer, he does overlap his starters and reserves a bit already, so returning Maxey wouldn't throw off the chemistry between the two groups. If a bad stretch of play during the Sixers' upcoming gauntlet of a schedule necessitates a change, Maxey becoming a starter again makes sense. It could be in place of Melton or P.J. Tucker, the two players among Philly's core six players that are often absent from lineups that close tight games.
2. Joel Embiid wins scoring title, James Harden takes assists title
The Sixers have the chance to see their two stars each lead the league in a primary stat. A second consecutive scoring title is right there for Embiid while Harden has the chance to be the league leader in assists per game, which he has only down in the 2016-17 campaign.
Embiid is 0.2 points per game behind Luka Doncic. The Dallas Mavericks' addition of Kyrie Irving makes it seem like Doncic is bound to have the ball less frequently and therefore score less often. While that seems likely, it's also entirely possible that Irving's scoring gravity and playmaking give Doncic more room to operate and thus he scores more efficiently, allowing him to maintain his narrow lead.
Still, Embiid being a step behind Doncic can partly be explained by the fact that he plays almost two fewer minutes per game. He also bumped up his per-game scoring by three points after the All-Star break last season…but so did Doncic. If Embiid plays more down the stretch — which may happen if Philly finds itself in close games — he should definitely be able to take back the lead in the scoring column.
Harden has a solid lead over the rest of the field. He's hovering just below 11 assists per game while only three other guys (Nikola Jokic, Trae Young and Tyrese Haliburton) are above 10. With his ability to get into grooves as a playmaker, he shouldn't have much of a problem keeping it up for the rest of the season.
Embiid and Harden's two-man game is nothing short of elite. Not only will it help the Sixers win games down the stretch of the season but will also get each star another accomplishment in their storied careers.
1. The Sixers finish almost identical to last year: fourth in the Eastern Conference, 52-30 record
The Sixers have 25 games left on their schedule, the most of any team in the East, and the strength of their schedule is the hardest in the league by a sizable margin. They have two more matchups each with the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks, another road matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers and other road matchups with teams like the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns.
The top two seeds in the conference will likely go to the Celtics and Bucks (even with Giannis Antetokounmpo's wrist injury). The Sixers, currently in third, will resume the season with a two-game lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers. The tiebreaker between the team two teams will be decided when they face off on March 15th in Cleveland.
Like most teams, the Sixers are less prolific on the road than at home. Their 12 road games in March tie a franchise record and many of those games come against teams in the playoff picture. Any stretch of inconsistent play or injuries to key players could knock them off of their 55-win pace. They have to win 14 of their last 25 games to surpass their win total from last season. It's certainly doable but it won't come easily.
The Sixers' talent is undeniable but their recent history suggests that getting your hopes up isn't worth it. We won't know for certain until the playoffs but the way they perform in the coming weeks will suggest if this group is truly different from its predecessors.
