This past weekend, we saw an incredible game by the North Carolina basketball team against their rival, Duke. The Tar Heels beat the Blue Devils at home on a last-second three-point shot that gave Duke its first ACC loss of the season. It represented one of the best moments from the rivalry's history. North Carolina had been inconsistent this year, and this win was their best of the season.
With college basketball taking center stage, we can expect Bracketology updates almost daily. One of the biggest names in the business is Joe Lunardi, and in his latest update, he has North Carolina as high as a 4-seed, thanks to the big win by the Tar Heels over the Blue Devils. The Tar Heels' resume is strong, but their overall metrics are not great.
Lunardi wrote about the Tar Heels, “Once again, North Carolina is riding the wave of being, well, North Carolina. A year ago, the Tar Heels were the last team selected into the field, despite the worst Quad 1 record in the history of at-large bids. This season, they're knocking on the door of the top 10, and just gained a coveted 4-seed, despite a profile that's at least a line or two worse than that.
“It's a stark example of the difference between what yours truly thinks and our Bracketology projections, which are always what we think the selection committee would do. It isn't that UNC is a bad team or can't make a deep tourney run; we don't often see a No. 24 NET ranking or a No. 48 defensive efficiency rating on the résumé of a top-four seed. Most of the time, I think blind résumés ignore valuable context. In this North Carolina team's case, a little blindness couldn't hurt.”
The Tar Heels rallied furiously late to hold off the Blue Devils and came back from a 13-point deficit. The last-second shot by Seth Trimble was also the only time North Carolina led during the entire game. Even if North Carolina does not remain a 4-seed, that was the type of win that could completely change the season.
