Subscribe
Follow Us
The Cinderella will have to wait until next year, as most of the top seeds have rolled through the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament and into the Sweet 16. All four top seeds are still battling for the title as well as three of the No. 2 seeds, and Auburn basketball is at the top of the list.
The lone “Cinderella” team that is left is John Calipari and No. 10-seed Arkansas, which isn't exactly your feel-good mid-major (although Calipari has done an amazing job to get the Razorbacks to this point). While there is plenty at stake for all of the top teams, Arkansas included, it is Auburn that has the most at stake heading into this weekend.
Bruce Pearl and the Tigers have been at the top of college basketball all season, ever since their incredible run to win the Maui Invitational back in November. Auburn won the regular season title in the best conference in the country, the SEC, and led the country in Quad 1 wins with 15.
As a result, there is a lot of pressure on Auburn to get the job done in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. Pearl is looking to get the Tigers back to their first Final Four since 2019, and they have the most at stake among all 16 teams in the second weekend for a few reasons.
Auburn should like its matchups in the South Regional
There are no easy games in the Sweet 16 or the Elite Eight, but Auburn should like its matchups relative to some other parts of the bracket. The Tigers will play No. 5 seed Michigan in the Sweet 16 on Friday before a potential matchup against N0. 2 seed Michigan State or sixth-seeded Ole Miss in the Elite Eight on Sunday.
Michigan has figured out how to win games and is hot coming off of a Big Ten title and an impressive pair of wins against UC San Diego and Texas A&M in Denver, but the underlying numbers suggest a lesser test than other top seeds have in the draw. The Wolverines thrive on winning close games and have gotten plenty of luck along the way to get to this point, along with the execution at the end of some of these tight contests.
Michigan came into the tournament with a quality metric average of 27, which is below the typical No. 5 seed. Meanwhile, Auburn ranks in the top four in essentially all metrics which should help it get the win on Friday.
Article Continues Below
From a matchup perspective, Michigan presents problems for a lot of teams with its size. The Wolverines play a pair of 7-footers at almost all times in Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, but Auburn is equipped to match up. Between Dylan Cardwell, Johni Broome and Chaney Johnson, Pearl has his own crop of bigs who can handle the problem. Auburn will also be motivated to get the win over Michigan point guard Trey Donaldson, who transferred from Auburn after last season.
In a potential Elite Eight matchup, Auburn should be able to have success against a Michigan State squad that struggles to make 3-pointers at times. Auburn's size can also help keep Tom Izzo's group off the offensive glass.
If it's Ole Miss in the Elite Eight, Auburn will feel pretty comfortable in that matchup. The Tigers are 3-0 against Chris Beard and the Rebels this season, including a 30-point win at home in February.
Pearl's squad will feel the need to make up for past failures
Auburn has become one of the elite programs in college basketball under Bruce Pearl, but all of its focus will continue to be on getting over the hump and winning the program's first-ever national championship.
Of course, there's no shame in a 2019 Final Four loss against eventual national champion Virginia in a game that literally came down to the final second. Since then, however, this Pearl will feel like his teams have left a lot on the table in the Big Dance.
Auburn was a No. 2 seed in 2022, but lost comfortably in the second round against No. 10 seed Miami. The Tigers were also viewed as a contender last season despite coming into the tournament as a No. 4 seed after winning the SEC Tournament Championship. However, that quest for a title was short-lived, ending with a shocking upset loss against No. 13 seed Yale.
While this Auburn squad didn't look the same in that loss to Virginia or the defeat at the hands of Miami, a lot of the key pieces will remember the sour taste of that defeat against the Ivy League Champions. Broome was Auburn's best player last season as well, and Chad Baker-Mazara was ejected in the first half of that game, which surely changed the trajectory of the rest of the day.
There's only one way to get that monkey off of your back. Auburn must get to the Final Four in San Antonio and get a couple of big-time wins to cut down the nets in order to erase those memories.
With the draw that Pearl and company has to get out of the South Regional and the talent and experience that this team has built up together, there's no reason to believe that they can't do it.
