For Much of the 2025 season, Texas football has not passed the eye test as a College Football Playoff team. Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns came into the season ranked No. 1 in the AP poll, but it became clear quickly that they weren't cut out for that kind of label.
In Week 1, Ohio State's elite defense shut the Longhorns down in Arch Manning's first start of the season, a loss which has aged well. Texas later took another loss against Florida on the road in an ugly performance on both sides of the ball.
Texas has won four games in a row since then, including a dominant win over Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. Sarkisian's group looked unimpressive in overtime wins against Kentucky and Mississippi State before a win against Vanderbilt in convincing fashion. Now, the schedule stiffens. Texas will head on head road to take on No. 5 Georgia in a game that it most likely has to win to stay in the playoff conversation.
The Longhorns came in at No. 10 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, slotting them in the final at-large spot. With fellow two-loss teams like Oklahoma, Utah, Vanderbilt and Miami behind them, they cannot afford a loss in this game.
The good news is that it seems like Texas is starting to play its best football at the right time. The bad news is that it has looked vulnerable on the road this season and has played much better at home. Is it good enough to beat Georgia on Saturday night? Here are three reasons the Longhorns can pull off the upset.
Texas can stop the run with the best of them
A lot of the focus has been on the Texas offense this season, which is only natural after Manning came into the season as the preseason favorite to win the Heisman Trophy and the presumptive No. 1 overall pick in one of the next two drafts. That talk has cooled, but Manning has started to play better and better as the season has gone on (more on that later).
Simply put, the reason Texas is still sitting in the top 10 with just two losses is because of its defense, and specifically its run defense. Texas currently ranks second in the country in run defense, giving up less than 80 yards on the ground per game. Opponents are running for 2.41 yards per carry against Texas, so it has been tough sledding for everyone in that department against the burnt orange.
Those numbers have held up against the better teams on this schedule as well. Vanderbilt ran for just 58 yards on 24 carries in a loss in Austin. Oklahoma managed a putrid 48 yards on 30 attempts, and Ohio State could only manage 77 yards on 34 attempts.
While Gunner Stockton has improved in the passing game for Georgia this season, the run game is still the straw that stirs the drink for this Bulldogs team. Georgia runs for nearly 200 yards per game on average, so it will be critical that Texas is able to neutralize that in this game.
Stockton has been efficient as a passer this season, but the running game has complemented him the entire way. Take that away, and maybe this Texas secondary can force some mistakes and create some big plays.
Texas is getting healthy on offense
One of the roots of the Longhorns' struggles on offense early in the season was some injuries to key skill players on offense. Manning didn't have some of his biggest weapons early in the year, and some guys have been banged up throughout the campaign.
One of Manning's top targets in the passing game, talented sophomore Ryan Wingo, is practicing and is expected to play on Saturday after leaving the win over Vanderbilt with a thumb injury. Sarkisian had said that Wingo could have returned to the game if needed, so it's no surprise that he is good to go after the bye week.
Texas has also gotten healthier at running back over the last month, as Tre Wisner has returned to the lineup and emerged as an explosive option as the feature back. CJ Baxter is also back and has played in the Longhorns' last two games, but has touched the ball just 17 times. Following the bye week to continue ramping up, he should be able to handle a heavier workload against Georgia.
Wisner has been massive for this Texas team since coming back. He finished with 128 yards from scrimmage in the win over Oklahoma back at the start of October and eclipsed the century mark once again against the Commodores.
A large part of the Texas offense, no matter who is at quarterback, involves quick horizontal passes to skill players and relies on this athletes to make guys miss and create yards after the catch. With the skill guys getting healthier, Texas will have chances to do just that on Saturday night.
Manning has continued to improve, and Georgia's pass rush is subpar
Manning faced heavy scrutiny early in the season for his subpar play, and some of that was deserved. He had serious issues with his accuracy and touch, especially on throws down the field, in large part due to some inconsistent mechanics.
Some of that has continued into the latter part of the season, but it has become less and less frequent as the year has gone on. However, the positive signs that Manning showed earlier in the season went largely unnoticed. He was constantly hanging in muddy pockets and trying to deliver throws in the face of pressure, and now he's more effective in doing so as a result.
There is some good news for Manning in this matchup. While the environment in Athens will be extremely hostile, Manning should have some clean pockets to work from. The Texas offensive line is healthier than it was early in the season and has now built some continuity, which has it playing as well as it has all year.
College football fans are surely used to Georgia having one of the most fearsome pass rushes in the country, but that is not necessarily the case this year. Through nine games, the Bulldogs have just 11 sacks! That ranks tied for 119th in the country, and opponents have been able to throw the ball effectively all season.
Stockton won't have the same luxury on the other side against a Texas front that has an NCAA-leading 34 sacks on the season. That disparity in the pass rush could play a big role if Texas wants to pull the upset on Saturday.
