It is one of the most historic rivalries in college football, as Army and Navy meet for the 126th time. The winner of this game will also take the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, currently held by Navy. The focus of the college football world all moves to this one game, and we have bold predictions on the contest.
Army enters the game at 6-5 on the season. The campaign started rocky, with the team losing to Tarleton State in double overtime. The next week, Army pulled the upset of Kansas State on the road. The Black Knights then lost their next two games to fall to 1-3 on the year. They would win four of the next five before losing by one point at home to Tulsa. Army needed a win over UTSA to become bowl eligible. Army controlled much of the game, but UTSA made a comeback and took a fourth-quarter lead. Army would drive the field and score a touchdown with under three minutes left, winning the game 27-24.
Meanwhile, Navy is 9-2 this year. They opened the season a perfect 7-0 before losing on the road to North Texas. They would also fall the next week to Notre Dame on the road. Navy won the next two games over South Florida and Memphis. The Midshipmen still missed the conference championship game, falling in the three-way tie-breaker to North Texas and Tulane.
Navy dominantly won the game last year, as Army played in the American Conference Championship the week before. Navy also leads the all-time series 63-55-7. The Midshipmen controlled the series at the start of the century, winning 16 of 17 games from 1999 through 2015, including 14 straight from 2002 through 2015. Since then Army has won six of the last nine meetings.
Cale Hellums keeps the Army offense moving
The Army offense has had its fair share of struggles this year. They are 94th in the nation in points per game while sitting 108th in yards per game. Army does not have much of a passing game, sitting 136th in passing yards per game, but they are fourth in rushing yards per game. Dewayne Coleman started the season as the quarterback for the Black Knights. He struggled to move the ball, leading to Cale Hellums taking over.
Hellums has been solid this year, completing 35 of 69 passes for 504 yards and three touchdowns. He has thrown two interceptions and been sacked just twice this year. He has run well, though. Hellums has run for 1,078 yards and 15 touchdowns this year. He has also run for 90 or more yards in six straight games, while going over 110 in four of those games.
The Navy defense has not been great this year. They are 86th in opponent points per game while sitting 107th in opponent yards per game. The pass defense is 122nd in the nation, but Hellums and the Army offense are last in pass attempts in the nation. Still, Navy also gives up 156 yards per game on the ground, which is 70th in the nation. Hellums is going to have a solid game. Expect him to run for over 100 yards and account for two touchdowns against Navy.
Blake Horvath steals the show
The Navy offense has been solid this year. They are 30th in points per game and 24th in yards per game on the season. Their pass offense has not been great. They are 131st in passing yards per game, but they are second in FBS in yards per pass. Meanwhile, Navy is first in the nation in rushing yards per game. Blake Horvath has been amazing this year. He did miss the game with Notre Dame, and the offense struggled without him.
Horvath has completed 81 of 131 passes for 1,390 yards and nine touchdowns. He has thrown five interceptions and been sacked four times. Regardless, his running game has also been stellar. Horvath has run for 1,040 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. Navy passes the ball more than other service academy schools, and Horvath typically drops back at least ten times per gam. He also hits a big play through the air almost every game, and he will do that in this one.
The weakest part of the Army defense has been against the pass. They are 132nd in sack rate and 54th against the pass. Horvath is going to be able to make some solid plays in this game, throwing for over 100 yards and running for over 50, while accounting for two scores.
Navy retains the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy
The Army defense has not been one of the best, but been solid enough. They are 34th in the nation in opponent points per game and 46th in opponent yards per game. Further, they are 49th against the run and 54th against the pass. That defense will keep them in the game for some time, but some aspects of their game will be an issue, and let Navy pull away. The first one is on third downs. Army is 126th in the nation in opponent third-down conversion. Meanwhile, Navy has been great on third downs. They convert over 45 percent of the time, which is 19th in the nation.
Another issue is in the red zone. Army is 40th in red zone defense this year, allowing teams to score over 80 percent of the time. If Navy can drive the field, they will have scoring opportunities.
Army is great in the turnover battle, though. They are 12th in turnover margin and third in giveaways per game. If Army can force some quality turnovers, they can keep the game close. Navy has been in some tight games this year and then pulled away. That is exactly what will happen in this game. Expect Army to keep it tight early, being within a score by the end of the first half. In the second half, Navy is going to pull away to get the win over Army.
