It is the Big Ten Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. A perfect season will be ruined for either Indiana or Ohio State in this contest, as the winner likely takes the top seed in the College Football Playoffs. As Indiana looks to pull the upset, it is time to make bold predictions about their game.
Indiana is facing their toughest test of the season. Ohio State is 12-0 on the year and has been dominant in the process. After a seven-point victory in the first game of the season against Texas, they have been rolling. They have won every game for the rest of the season by 14 points or more, with the two closest games resulting in 18-point victories.
The Hoosiers are also 12-0, but there have been some small bumps in the road, surrounded by massive victories. After a 27-14 win over Old Dominion to open the season, Indiana tormented their next three opponents, including a 63-10 win over Illinois. The next game, on the road at Iowa, was just a five-point victory, though. The team may have been looking ahead to the next game, a road game against Oregon, which Indiana won 30-20.
The Hooisers then won three more in controlling fashion, before a come-from-behind win on the road over Penn State, 27-24. Since then, the team has defeated Wisconsin and Purdue by a combined score of 87-10.
The Indiana defense makes the big play
The Indiana defense has been stellar this season. They are third in the nation in opponent points per game while sitting sixth in opponent yards per game. The Hooisers are fourth against the run and 19th against the pass this year. Still, the major part of the defense has been the ability to create turnovers and get to the quarterback. Indiana is 17th in sack rate while also sixth in interception rate. Further, Indiana takes the ball away 2.2 times per game on average.
Ohio State has been one of the best in the nation in taking care of the ball, specifically quarterback Julian Sayin. He has thrown just five interceptions this year. Ohio State protected its quarterback well last week against a solid pass rush of Michigan, but Sayin did throw an interception. Indiana has the players to force another interception in this game.
Louis Moore has led the way. He has just one pass breakup, but has intercepted five passes. Joining him in the defensive secondary is Amare Ferrell, who has been a great cover corner. He has broken up six passes while adding four interceptions. Finally, Devan Boykin had four pass breakups and two interceptions, while D'Angelo Ponds had seven pass breakups and a pick. Ohio State has some solid receivers, with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, but the secondary for Indiana can contain them.
Fernando Mendoza accounts for two scores
While the Indiana defense has been great, the offense has also been one of the best in college football. They are third in FBS in points per game while also sitting ninth in yards per game. The run game has been a major part of the offense, sitting ninth in the nation, but it also helps set up the pass, which ranks 50th.
Fernando Mendoza and the offense know they have a tall task ahead of them with this Ohio State defense. Ohio State is the best in the nation in opponents' points per game, yards per game, and passing yards per game. They are also third against the run.
While the defense has been solid, they have yet to face this level of offense. That all starts with Mendoza, the Heisman candidate for the Hoosiers. Mendoza has passed for 2,758 yards with 32 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He has also run for 243 yards and six touchdowns. He has accounted for two touchdowns in 10 of 12 games this season.
The Ohio State defense has given up 14 or more points just twice this year. In those two games combined, the quarterback has accounted for just one touchdown. Mendoza is going to account for two in this game, with one on the ground.
Bloomington celebrates on Saturday night
There is a ton on the line in the Big Ten Championship game on Saturday. Not only is there a Big Ten Title, but also the likely top seed in the College Football Playoff. Further, Mendoza could potentially earn the Heisman by outdueling Sayin. Indiana comes into the game as a four-point underdog, according to the latest odds provided by DraftKings. If Indiana is going to pull the upset, they need to be clicking on all cylinders.
That not only includes an amazing game from Mendoza, but also a solid running game from Indiana. The two-headed backfield of Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black. Hemby has run for 866 yards this year, while Black has run for 729. Further. Hemby has six rushing touchdowns, and Black has seven. Adding in the fact that Khobie Martin had scored six times on the ground, plus the six from Mendoza, the running game will also need to be working for Indiana to score.
Michigan had trouble getting the ball moving in the red zone against Ohio State last week, and Ohio State is third in red zone defense this year. Regardless, Indiana has been great in the end zone and will be able to score. Indiana has the better offense overall in this game and the better kicking game. That is going to be the difference in this tight affair as Indiana pulls off the upset.
