The regular season is in the rearview mirror, and the College Football Playoff picture is clearer than ever. Rivalry Week was devoid of chaos on Saturday after Texas A&M suffered its first loss of the season against Texas on Friday night.
Oklahoma and Alabama both survived close calls late on Saturday, and Oregon rolled over Washington to establish its spot in the top 12, so the committee won't have that much work to do, right?
Wrong. Texas made its case to be a CFP team with its win over the Aggies, even with three losses. The Longhorns now have one of the best wins in college football to go with a handful of top-10 victories, and they played Ohio State out of conference. Vanderbilt also made a big statement with a win on Saturday over Tennessee, while BYU and Miami both stayed in the mix with blowout victories of their own.
Who will be in position when the penultimate rankings come out on Tuesday night, and how will things look after conference championship weekend?
1. Ohio State (12-0)
Ohio State got the Wolverine off of its back on Saturday, crushing Michigan 27-9 to cap off an undefeated regular season. The Buckeyes' defense continues to be essentially impenetrable, and the offense played much better in the cold after Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate returned to the lineup.
Now, the long-awaited Big Ten showdown with Indiana will go down in Indianapolis on Saturday with the conference title and the No. 1 seed in the CFP on the line.
2. Georgia (11-1)
If Georgia wins the SEC Championship Game against Alabama, which we are currently projecting it to do, the Bulldogs will surely be the No. 2 seed over whoever loses the Big Ten title game. Kirby Smart and company are playing their best football at the right time this season and completely shut down the Georgia Tech offense in a win on Friday. With a first-round bye in the CFP on tap, nobody wants to play this Georgia team at the moment.
3. Indiana (12-0)
Indiana, as usual, had no trouble with Purdue on Friday night as the Cignetti train rolled to 12-0 on the season. The Hoosiers haven't been tested much this season outside of a road win over Oregon and a tight victory against Penn State, but they certainly will be when Ohio State comes to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday. Win that game, and Indiana will be the unanimous No. 1 seed.
4. Texas Tech (11-1)
Texas A&M's loss is Texas Tech's gain, as the Red Raiders should comfortably secure a first-round bye with a win over BYU in the Big 12 title game. Texas Tech continued to roll with a 49-0 win over West Virginia on Saturday to get to 11-1 on the season.
Joey McGuire and company crushed BYU the first time the two faced off, and we're expecting a similar result in round two down in Arlington.
5. Oregon (11-1)
Oregon is another beneficiary of Black Friday, as the Ducks should slide up to No. 5 after Texas A&M's loss and its own impressive road win over Washington. That would land Dan Lanning and company a home game against an auto-bid that it would be a big favorite over, something the Ducks would certainly sign up for in a heartbeat.
6. Texas A&M (11-1)
Texas A&M's placement is one of the big storylines heading into Tuesday night, but the Aggies should at least slide below Texas Tech and Oregon after losing to Texas. Despite playing in the SEC, Mike Elko's squad has played a pretty soft conference schedule, with its best win coming over Missouri.
Still, the non-conference victory over Notre Dame is a very large feather in the cap of this Texas A&M squad, so we'll put them at No. 6 heading into championship weekend.
7. Ole Miss (11-1)
Ole Miss blocked out the noise enough to comfortably beat Mississippi State on Friday… but now what? Lane Kiffin is gone to LSU, but his coaching future over the next month or two is still up in the air.
If Kiffin isn't with the team for the postseason, which seems increasingly likely, the committee could penalize them similar to how it did with Florida State after Jordan Travis' injury years ago. The Rebels are boxed in above Oklahoma with a better record and a head-to-head victory, but the loss of Kiffin could be the tiebreaker in a very close debate between Ole Miss and Texas A&M.
8. Oklahoma (10-2)
It didn't look convincing, but Oklahoma got another win on the board with a 17-13 victory over LSU on Saturday. No matter what the eye test says, OU's resume is tough to beat: 10-2 against a very difficult SEC schedule with wins over Texas, Michigan and Alabama and Tennessee.
That has earned the Sooners the No. 8 spot coming into the week, and nothing happened over the weekend that should change that. The Sooners will likely be hosting a playoff game in Norman before Christmas.
9. Notre Dame (10-2)
The debate starts at No. 9, with six teams (Notre Dame, Alabama, Miami, Vanderbilt, BYU, Texas) realistically fighting for two at-large spots. Miami still has the head-to-head win over the Irish, but the committee has made their stance clear. The metrics and the eye test both favor Marcus Freeman's group at this time, which has had it a notch above everyone below it for weeks now. A 49-20 win over Stanford on Saturday night likely won't change that, for better or worse.
10. Alabama (10-2)
Alabama nearly lost the Iron Bowl on Saturday night, but Kalen DeBoer and company kept chugging along to get to 10-2 on the season. The Crimson Tide will have a chance to play their way into the playoff with a win over Georgia in Atlanta on Saturday.
If Alabama loses that game, things will get interesting. Punishing the Tide for playing an extra game, which it earned the right to play, feels wrong, but it would be a third loss on the resume. If it were up to us, Alabama would be in regardless, but Selection Sunday was famously unkind to DeBoer's squad a year ago.
11. Virginia (10-2)
Virginia will take on 7-5 Duke in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday night thanks to a whole bunch of tiebreakers, and the entire conference administration will be pulling hard for the Cavaliers. If not, a disaster scenario for the ACC that seemed far away weeks ago will have fully come to light.
If Duke were to win, it seems likely that both the American champion and one-loss James Madison, if it were to beat Troy in the Sun Belt title game, would qualify as the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions. The ACC getting left out of the playoff for not one, but two Group of Five conferences would be bizarre and would lead to massive change, especially when it comes to conference tiebreakers.
12. North Texas (11-1)
North Texas will take on Tulane in a de facto playoff game on Friday night with the American Championship on the line. Both head coaches are off to other places after the season concludes, but both have a chance to make history for their schools first.
These two teams are very evenly matched, but quarterback Drew Mestemaker is having a Cinderella-type of season. We'll take him to lead the Mean Green to the CFP.
Next Out (in order): BYU, Miami (FL), Texas, Vanderbilt, Utah
Quarterfinal Predictions
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Notre Dame
Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 10 Alabama
Orange Bowl: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 6 Texas A&M
Cotton Bowl: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon
Semifinal Predictions
Fiesta Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Oregon
Peach Bowl: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Indiana
National Championship Prediction
No. 1 Ohio State over No. 3 Indiana
