Oregon football returns to the College Football Playoff spotlight for the second straight year. This time Dan Lanning and the Ducks have one of the Cinderella teams in James Madison on deck.
JMU is a massive underdog here — entering Autzen Stadium with the Ducks favored by nearly 22 points. It's also the first time a Sun Belt Conference team gets the playoff stage…regardless if the format was four or 12 teams.
The Dukes are carrying more than a Group of Five conference on their back. They're aiming to send out head coach Bob Chesney in victorious fashion — before he officially takes over at UCLA.
Do the Dukes really look overmatched? Or will the 12th seed shake up the world in Eugene? Time to dive into these bold predictions.
Oregon will have trouble early with James Madison defense
That's not hyperbole either. Oregon is facing one of the better defenses this season.
James Madison allowed the second-fewest average yards in 2025. Only Ohio State produced a better defense than the Dukes. Opposing teams also only averaged 4.05 yards per play facing JMU's unit.
JMU is stout at clogging running lanes — presenting the early problem for Oregon's offense. This presents difficulty in establishing the play action for Dante Moore, as he's one of the best deep ball passers in these playoffs.
Moore and the offense may need to turn to short-to-intermediate throws instead of the run to test JMU. But the Dukes also swing the advantage their way if they can bottle the explosives and force turnovers. They likely picked the brain of old pal Curt Cignetti — as the former JMU head coach created Moore's worst game of the season (two interception afternoon in the loss to Indiana).
Oregon will overwhelm on defense, though
With torrential rainfall expected, this plays into a defensive slugfest early.
But that's where Oregon gains its own advantage when its defense hits the field.
The Ducks look overwhelming off of size and speed up front. JMU comes with a shorter offensive line that must trust leverage. And in facing four speed rushers, that becomes hard to set up blocks. Having a wet field doesn't help either.
Oregon is already acclimated in these inclement conditions. Lanning will test JMU QB Alonza Barnett III right out the gate, especially seeing if he can off his arm and not his legs (he's most dangerous at the latter). A big key is forcing Barnett to hang onto the football for more than three seconds — as the QB struggled in the past with hanging onto the ball for too long.
Oregon's athletes will wash James Madison
The other storm JMU must deal with are the 11 defenders on the field for Oregon.
There's simply too many athletes at Lanning's disposal. Oregon will overwhelm this JMU offense off athleticism alone.
The Dukes' hopes rely on early turnovers and controlling the clock with Wayne Knight in the backfield. But Oregon knows Knight is getting the ball. The Ducks can turn this into a lopsided affair if they force Barnett to throw more — which he's not used to.
JMU's defense will do everything in its power to keep it close. But Oregon is looking at a Miami trip for New Year's Day.
