Two top 25 teams in the AP Poll match up in the SEC. Missouri sits 15th after a tight victory last week. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is in the top ten for the first time since 1947. This game could decide the race for a playoff spot and potentially the SEC title game, as we make bold predictions on the contest.
Missouri comes into the game sitting at 6-1 on the year, and 2-1 in conference play. They opened the season with five straight wins. Still, just one game was a non-conference power-conference team, as they defeated Kansas 42-31. Another was a win over South Carolina. Then the Tigers faced the Crimson Tide. It was a tight game after Missouri scored late, but Alabama still took a 27-24 victory. They rebounded somewhat. Missouri faced Auburn on the road last week, the team's first road game of the year. It would take two overtimes, but Missouri took the 23-17 victory.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is also 6-1 on the year and 2-1 in conference play. Vanderbilt opened the year 5-0, including wins over Virginia Tech and South Carolina on the road. They did struggle against Alabama, losing 30-14 on the road. Vanderbilt rebounded in a big way last week at home. The team hosted a tenth-ranked LSU. Vanderbilt was solid in the first half, scoring on three of their first four drives in the first half, leading 17-13 at the halftime break. After two touchdowns in the third quarter for the offense, the defense took over in the fourth quarter. After allowing a field goal to start the quarter, LSU had negative ten yards in the last two drives, as Vandy won the game 31-24.
Sedrick Alexander and Eli Stowers take starting roles
The Vanderbilt offense has been great this year. They are fourth in the nation in points per game while sitting 18th in yards per game. Further, the team is second in the nation on third-down conversion. The running attack has been stellar, sitting 14th in the nation, while the team is also 61st in the pass.
Much of the focus has been on Diego Pavia, and rightfully so. He has worked his way into the conversation to win the Heisman Trophy and has been wonderful for the Commodores. Pavia has passed for 1,569 yards and 15 touchdowns while being intercepted just four times. Further, he has run for 438 yards and four touchdowns this year.
Meanwhile, the Missouri defense has been solid. They are 21st in the nation in opponent points per game and fourth in opponent yards per game this year. While Pavia is going to make the big plays, two other players will be playing starring roles. Missouri is one of the best in the nation agaisnt the run, but having to cover both Pavia and Sedrick Alexander is something they have not had to do this year.
Alexander has run for 361 yards this year while scoring six times. He was heavily relied on in the game against Alabama, another strong defense. In that game, he ran for 76 yards and a touchdown while also bringing in a receiving score. He will not break the 100-yard marker for the first time in this game, but will be well over 50 yards and score at least once.
Meanwhile, Eli Stowers has been the security blanket for Pavia. They have a rapport going back to playing together at New Mexico State. Stowers has 28 receptions for 255 yards and two scores. Missouri has been solid at getting pressure on the quarterback and will spy Pavia as well. Expect him to dump it to Stowers multiple times, and for the big tight end to come away with a touchdown in this one.
Beau Pribula has a big game
Missouri has been solid on offense this year as well. They are 16th in the nation in points per game while sitting 11th in yards per game. The best part of the offense has been the run game, sitting fifth in the nation in rushing yards per game while 72nd in passing. Still, Vanderbilt has been dominant against the run. They are 16th in the nation in opponent rushing yards per game. The defensive scheme of the Dores has shown to cause confusion and limit running games all year. This is going to mean the quarterback needs to take over for Missouri.
Quarterback Beau Pribula has been solid this year. He has passed for 1,617 yards and 11 touchdowns while also running for five. He has had some solid games this year, including four games with at least two touchdown passes. Further, Pribula can run. He has 210 yards on the ground, plus the game-winning touchdown just last week.
The offense is going to have to rely on Pribula in this game, and he will reward them. He has had just one game with a QBR under 75, and still held a 77.9 QBR against Alabama in the loss. He is going to be solid again and keep Missouri in this game.
Vanderbilt grabs a third victory over a ranked team
Vanderbilt is having a magical season, but the expectation has long been that the magic will run out. This expectation goes back to last year, when they upset No. 1 Alabama, but still struggled down the stretch. The preseason expectations for the team were a five to six-win season. The Commodores have already exceeded those. Now, Vanderbilt wants to make a playoff run.
Two key factors are going to help in that goal this week. The first will be third-down conversions. Vanderbilt is second in the nation in third-down conversions on offense. LSU keyed in on that last week and had been strong on third downs on defense. The Dores still converted six of 13 third downs. Missouri is eighth in the nation in opponent third-down conversion rate, but Vanderbilt is going to win the battle there.
The second is going to be the turnover game. Missouri gives the ball away 1.3 times a game while coming up with just 0.7 takeaways, placing them 109th in the nation in turnover margin. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is 54th in the nation in turnover margin and forces 1.3 turnovers per game.
Pribula has thrown interceptions in five straight games, including two in each of the last two games. Moreover, he had one at the end of the game agaisnt Auburn that, against a better team, would have cost them the game. The big pick costs them the game this time, and Missouri falls to Vanderbilt.
