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Penn State Football would see its season end in the College Football Playoff Semifinal, falling to Notre Dame by just three points. Still, expectations for the Nittany Lions are high. While they do not kick off their season until August 30th against Nevada, it is time to make some way-too-early bold predictions for their season.
James Franklin and company had a solid campaign in the 2024 season. They would start 6-0 before falling to Ohio State. They would also qualify for the Big Ten title game, but fall to Oregon there. Still, the team made the playoffs, winning games over SMU and Boise State. They would then fall to Notre Dame in the semi-final.
The Nittany Lions also bring back plenty of production, including Drew Allar, Nicholas Singleton, and Kaytron Allen. They do need to replace Tyler Warren on offense and Abdul Carter on defense, but this should still be a solid team. At the time of writing, odds from FanDuel suggest Penn State is the second most favored team to win the conference. They are also the fourth most favored team to win the National Title this season.
Penn State wins 11 games and the Big Ten
Penn State has a favorable schedule this year. They open the season at home with Nevada, FIU, and Villanova in their first three weeks. This should lead to a 3-0 start to the season. After an off week, they will face Oregon. Oregon struggled with the Ohio State defense last year, and Penn State is now led on defense by former Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. This will be a tough game, but with Oregon losing many of their best offensive players, and Penn State bringing so much back, they will start 4-0.
They hit the road for the first time with a game at UCLA. This is before a home game with Northwestern, both of which should be wins. The Nittany Lions then travel to Iowa, and will move to 7-0. Penn State then gets another off week before traveling to Ohio State. This means the two most difficult games of the year come immediately after an open week for the Nittany Lions.
Penn State then closes the season with home games against Indiana and Nebraska, plus road games with Michigan State and Rutgers. They will be favored in at least 10 games this year, if not 11, with the only underdog game being Ohio State. This team is set up to run the table, though. Both Oregon and Ohio State have questions at quarterback. While the Buckeyes bring back Jeremiah Smith, Penn State also brings back multiple defensive players who may be able to slow him down.
Furthermore, unless Michigan or USC shocks the conference, they will have a rematch against a team they have already faced. Penn State, in a rematch, should be a positive situation. This is especially true with their veteran coaching staff and a veteran group of playmakers. Franklin was the head coach when they won the Big Ten in 2016, and will get his second conference title this year.
Drew Allar wins the Heisman
Drew Allar, at the time of writing, is fifth in odds to win the Heisman according to FanDuel. His odds sit at +1400, behind fellow quarterbacks Arch Manning, Garrett Nuessmeier, and Cade Klubnik. It is also behind Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. Still, Allar is going to win the Heisman. Allar has been ranked as one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. With Heisman voting starting before the conference title game and finishing just after the title game, a quarterback from a Big Ten title-winning team with 12 wins on the year is going to be a favorite.
Other factors are working in his favor as well. There is not a major two-way player to take the award this year, like Travis Hunter last year. Further, many of the recent winners have come from teams that have had solid seasons, and Penn State will be having one.
Allar is also in his third season as the starting quarterback for the Nittany Lions. He has experience and is under the offensive tutelage of Andy Kotelnicki once again. Allar made a major improvement from his first season to his second as the starting quarterback, and a similar jump will make him the favorite to win the award. He has fixed much of the questionable decision-making that caused issues in his first year as a starter. More improvement could make him the top quarterback in the country, while he also plays with eight of the ten other starters from last year.
Penn State is upset in the playoffs
With Penn State going 12-1 and being the Big Ten Champions, they will enjoy a bye in the College Football Playoffs. In the first year of the CFP, all four teams that received a by would lose in their first game of the playoffs. It was the five, six, seven, and eight seeds that made it to the semi-finals. This year will see a change to the seeding of the College Football Playoff, but could still see second-round upsets.
Based on current rankings and odds to make the playoffs, Penn State would likely be the two seed in this scenario, sitting behind Texas. It could also set up a second-round game with Notre Dame, which defeated Penn State in the playoff last year. Further, with new seeding standards, they could have to face Ohio State for a third time in the semi-finals. Last year proved the difference in how the Buckeyes play in the playoffs. As one of the top two seeds, Penn State will be a favorite to make it to the finals. They will fall short.
