A once-promising season for the Tennessee football program is on the verge of falling apart.
After this past weekend's 33-27 home loss to Oklahoma, the Volunteers may unofficially be out of College Football Playoff (CFP) contention. Last year, the first season in which 12 teams qualified for the playoff, only one three-loss team made it: Clemson, which beat 11-1 SMU in the ACC title game to become the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion and earn an automatic bid. The other highly ranked three-loss teams — Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina — all were left on the outside looking in.
Because the CFP looms so large, especially after a berth last season, Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel was asked postgame Saturday if he talks to his team about the CFP.
“Ultimately, we’re not in control of any of those things,” Heupel said [h/t GoVols247's Patrick Brown]. “We’re in control of what we do. Disappointed. Thought they prepared extremely hard. There were some things that were really good defensively early tonight. We thought they played really good football.
“You’ve got a choice to make. That’s life, how you’re going to respond. This group has competed. It’s continued to try to get better every day. Expect and demand that of them as we get going here on the back end of this one.”
It remains to be seen what the CFP committee thinks of the Volunteers' resume, which has taken a massive hit with the midseason collapses of Syracuse and Mississippi State, both of whom Tennessee beat.
After its season-opening loss to UT, Syracuse won three in a row, but since losing its starting quarterback, the Orange have lost all five games. Similarly, Mississippi State was 4-0 when the Vols rolled into Starkville and won 41-34 in overtime. The Bulldogs lost three straight after that, including frustratingly close games vs. Florida and Texas. Tennessee's other wins were against FCS East Tennessee State, Kentucky, UAB, and Arkansas, the latter two of whom have both fired their head coaches this season.
Because Tennessee lacks the wins typically necessary of a CFP team, it will be intriguing to see how much the committee values the ‘quality losses' of Georgia, Alabama, and Oklahoma, all of whom are among the top 11 in the latest AP Top 25. Tennessee, with its defeat to Oklahoma, sank from 14th to 23rd in the latest poll.
While an SEC title game appearance is all but out of the question, decisive wins over the final month could prove invaluable. In particular, a big win over Vanderbilt, which fell from No. 9 to No. 15 after a loss to Texas this weekend, could help the Vols' CFP case going into December. The Commodores will be favored in each of their two games (vs. Auburn and Kentucky) before the in-state clash, which could set up a potential top-10 Vanderbilt going into Neyland Stadium against a top-15 Tennessee, depending on how things shake out between now and then.
The Vols are on a bye this coming week before hosting New Mexico State on Nov. 15.
