The calendar has officially flipped to November, and the first College Football Playoff rankings will be released heading into Week 11. Halloween weekend was spooky for some playoff contenders, while others passed big tests with flying colors.
The picture at the top of three of the major conferences, with the exception of the Big Ten, is a lot murkier after some big upsets in Week 10. Georgia Tech and Miami both lost at the top of the ACC, Cincinnati's undefeated Big 12 record went by the wayside against Utah, and Texas beat Vanderbilt to cram up the SEC race.
The teams at the very top were either off on Saturday or had no trouble, leaving not a lot of change at the top from the Week 10 predictions. However, there was plenty of turnover in the back half of the rankings, leaving plenty of intrigue before the first rankings come out.
Here's the latest look at how the rankings might look when the season comes to an end in just over a month's time.
1. Ohio State (8-0)
Saturday was supposed to be one of the toughest tests of the year for Ohio State when Penn State came to Columbus for a Big Ten battle. As it turns out, neither Drew Allar nor James Franklin were present for that one, and the Buckeyes rolled to a 38-14 win to get to 8-0.
This was business as usual for Ryan Day and company as Julian Sayin continues to mount his Heisman Trophy case. With this victory, we're one step closer to the Ohio State-Indiana showdown in Indianapolis.
2. Texas A&M (8-0)
There's a very real chance that Texas A&M will be ranked No. 1 in the initial CFP ranking on Tuesday night, but we'll leave Ohio State there on the account of it suffocating every offense it has played so far. However, the Aggies have the best wins and are still unbeaten in the SEC.
Mike Elko and company were off in Week 10, but have a difficult road test against No. 19 Missouri coming in Week 11. Get through that one, and A&M will be locked into a playoff spot no matter what happens in Austin on Thanksgiving weekend.
3. Indiana (9-0)
Indiana hasn't been playing the toughest slate of opponents since dominating Oregon on the road, but boy has it been passing the eye test. Curt Cignetti and this elite Indiana defense made Malik Washington look like the true freshman that he is on Saturday in a 55-10 demolition of Maryland on the road.
Indiana is another team that has a case for the top spot in the initial rankings on the back of that Oregon win and a sneaky-good road win at Iowa. However, the Big Ten title game will ultimately decide the Hoosiers' seeding fate in the CFP.
4. Alabama (7-1)
Alabama also had the week off in Week 10 after a long slate of tough games in the SEC, all of which the Tide were able to come out on the winning end of. That, combined with Miami's loss, earns it the last bye spot in these rankings. Ty Simpson is playing as well as any quarterback in the nation, and the Tide will be able to put up points on anybody as a result.
Coming out of the bye, Alabama will take on a reeling LSU team at home just after firing Brian Kelly. That game is looking a lot more favorable than it was a few weeks ago, and then things will heat up for Alabama with a game against playoff hopeful Oklahoma.
5. Georgia (7-1)
It's almost never pretty, but Kirby Smart and the unkillable Georgia Bulldogs keep finding ways to win. This time, they came out on top 24-20 in a rivalry game against Florida to get to 7-1 on the season despite a difficult schedule.
Georgia still needs some help to get into the SEC Championship Game due to its loss to Alabama earlier in the year, and that help looks less and less likely to come with each passing week. However, the Bulldogs should now have their full attention on a Week 12 clash against a Texas team that looks rejuvenated after a very impressive win over Vanderbilt.
6. Ole Miss (8-1)
Ole Miss is now fully past the meat of its schedule after taking down South Carolina on Saturday night. Just three games remain for Lane Kiffin and company to get to 11-1 and earn a home playoff game, and I take it they won't have any trouble with The Citadel on Saturday.
Just Florida and Mississippi State stand in the way of a CFP berth for Kiffin, his first during his time at Ole Miss. The Rebels should roll through those games if playing near their best and host a game in Oxford in late December.
7. Oregon (7-1)
Oregon had the week off and now enters the home stretch likely needing to go 4-0 to get a spot in the field. With a victory over Penn State aging poorly, there just isn't the quality of wins on the Ducks' resume to get in as a 10-2 team at the moment.
That quest to go 4-0 starts with a very tough test on the road against Iowa on Saturday (just ask Indiana how that goes). If Oregon can get through that game, a home date with USC and a road test against Washington both still await. We're giving them wins in all of those games for now, but another loss will knock Dan Lanning and company into the next out list.
8. Texas Tech (8-1)
Texas Tech made a statement on Saturday with Behren Morton back, running away with a tricky game on the road against a quickly-improving Kansas State squad to get to 8-1 on the season. Cincinnati lost its unbeaten Big 12 record against Utah on Saturday night, putting the Red Raiders in a better position at the top of the conference.
Texas Tech will have a chance to take out the other uneaten Big 12 team on Saturday when it takes on BYU. College GameDay will be there on the 17th anniversary of Michael Crabtree's epic game-winner against Texas, and the Red Raiders will be fired up. For all of the impressive things BYU has done this season, Joey McGuire's squad is still the pick out of the Big 12.
9. Notre Dame (6-2)
And just like that, Notre Dame is back in the playoff picture. With some carnage across the SEC and the ACC, the Irish have risen back into the projected top 12 after beating Boston College in an unimpressive performance on Saturday afternoon. At this point, a 10-2 Notre Dame squad looks like an essential lock to make the field, and the Irish don't have any threats left on the schedule.
Nothing is a given, but games against Navy, Pitt, Syracuse and Stanford shouldn't keep any Notre Dame fans up at night. Take care of business there, and it will likely find itself somewhere in this 8-10 range come Selection Sunday.
10. Vanderbilt (7-2)
This last at-large spot (before the ACC and Group of Five champions) could have gone to many different teams. Vanderbilt just lost to Texas, who is also in the running here. Oklahoma deserves a mention after taking down Tennessee at Neyland on Saturday night. BYU, even if it gets to the end of the season 11-1, deserves a mention. Georgia Tech still has a chance to get back in the mix if it can beat Georgia at the end of the regular season.
Vanderbilt is still our pick here, primarily for schedule reasons. Texas still has to play Georgia and Texas A&M, and even an improving Longhorns squad will have a tough time going 2-0 there. Oklahoma has to play a road game against Alabama, which spells trouble for the Sooners. Vanderbilt has a much clearer path to 10-2 after Tennessee showed its flaws on Saturday, and the money is on Clark Lea and company to get there.
11. Virginia (8-1)
The ACC in 2025 is one of the wildest conferences in recent memory, and the chaos reached a new level on Saturday as both Miami and Georgia Tech fell by the wayside. Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes are now essentially out of the conference title race with two losses, trailing a remarkable six teams that have zero or one loss in conference play this late in the year.
Virginia is the pick for now on the basis that it is the only unbeaten team in ACC play — even though it lost a “non-conference” game against ACC opponent NC State early in the year. Georgia Tech, Pitt, Duke, SMU and Louisville are all close behind with one loss. A difficult road test awaits Tony Elliott and company against Duke in Week 12, and that could end up deciding one of the spots in the ACC title game.
12. Memphis (8-1)
Memphis is once again leading the charge for the Group of Five heading into Week 11 after taking care of business against Rice on Friday. It moved up to No. 22 in the AP poll with the win, the only Group of Five team in the poll.
On top of that, Navy's loss to North Texas on Saturday means that everyone in the American has at least one loss, giving Memphis a clear path to the title game. However, a tricky home test awaits against Tulane in prime time on Friday.
Next Out: Texas, BYU, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma, Utah, Miami (FL)
Quarterfinal Predictions
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Notre Dame
Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Texas A&M vs. No. 7 Oregon
Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
Orange Bowl: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 5 Georgia
Semifinal Predictions
Fiesta Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Alabama
Peach Bowl: No. 2 Texas A&M vs. No. 3 Indiana
National Championship Prediction
No. 1 Ohio State over No. 2 Texas A&M
