Texas football is set to finish its non-conference schedule as it hosts Sam Houston. Texas is dropping in the SEC Power Rankings as they have struggled since the loss to Ohio State in Week 1. The Longhorns now have one more chance to get right before the team opens up SEC play.
The Bearkats come into the game at 0-3, struggling in the early season. Sam Houston opened up with a conference loss to Western Kentucky before falling to both UNLV and Hawaii. The team has struggled all year, giving up 37 or more points in all three games, while not being within two scores in any of them. The Bearkats look to improve this week, before an open week and the start of Conference USA play.
Meanwhile, Texas is now 2-1 on the year. The Longhorns fell in Week 1 to Ohio State 14-7, but would rebound to have a solid showing against San Jose State. Still, it was a struggle against UTEP. Arch Manning completed just 11-of-25 passes for 114 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He did show off his legs, though, running for 51 yards and two touchdowns in the game. Still, it was a disappointing performance from the Longhorns overall, and something the team hopes to remedy in Week 4.
Jerrick Gibson puts on a show
CJ Baxter is expected to miss Week 4's game with a hamstring injury, while Tre Wisner has not played since the Ohio State game. This will open the door for Jerrick Gibson to have a massive game. So far in 2025, he has run for 102 yards on 25 carries, but has yet to score a touchdown. No Texas running back has scored on the ground this year, with the only three running touchdowns coming from Manning.
That changes this week.
Sam Houston has been solid against the run overall, sitting 49th in the nation in opponent rushing yards per game. The defense is still giving up 127.7 yards per game, and with injuries to the other backs, the load will fall on Gibson to have a big game.
The sophomore did not have a rush in the game with Ohio State, but when given an opportunity against UTEP this past week, he was solid, running for 64 yards. He will run for more in this one. The Sam Houston defense has struggled in general, which should give plenty of opportunities for the run. Gibson has hit the 100-yard rushing mark once in his career, doing that against Florida last season. He will match that total in this game and also provide the first rushing touchdowns from a running back this season.
Matthew Caldwell is solid in limited time
Arch Manning has struggled this season. He has completed just 47 of 85 passes for 579 yards and six scores. Still, he has already thrown three interceptions. That is more than he threw in 2024, when he attempted 90 passes. He has run well this year, rushing for 112 yards on 23 carries with three scores. Regardless, he will not be the quarterback Longhorn fans will be talking about at the end of this game.
Senior Matthew Caldwell saw time last week and completed two of three passes for 22 yards. He has been a solid quarterback in the past. Caldwell began his career at Jacksonville State in 2021, before spending two years at Gardner Webb, and last season at Troy. In his time at Troy, he completed 141 of 233 passes for 1,608 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Texas is going to build a massive lead in this game. Sam Houston is 121st in the nation in opponent points per game while also sitting 107th in opponent yards per game. With Manning struggling so far this year and Texas building a major lead, expect Caldwell to get time in this game. He may enter earlier than expected to help Manning reset. Manning does not need to play much in this game as the Longhorns prepare for SEC play. With that, expect Caldwell to have the most time he will see this year. He is going to throw for over 100 yards and find the endzone with a pass at least once in this game.
Sam Houston covers but struggles
Sam Houston has been horrible this year. The team joined the FBS ranks in 2023, going 3-9. KC Keeler got them going in 2024, with a 10-3 record and a win in the New Orleans Bowl. Keeler left for Temple in the offseason. This has led to Phil Longo taking over as the head coach. The former Ole Miss, North Carolina, and Wisconsin offensive coordinator returns to Sam Houston, where he coached from 2014 through 2016.
It has been a tough run for Longo and his team so far. Not only are they 0-3, but every game has been a loss of ten or more points. In the process, they have played three different quarterbacks and not been able to get the running game going. Hunter Watson, a quarterback, leads the team in rushing.
Texas has been dominant on defense this year, sitting 12th in the nation in opponent points per game and ninth in opponent yards per game. Still, the offense has struggled overall, sitting 73rd in the nation. Texas is going to use this game to fix things as it prepares for SEC play. With that, the offense should continue to struggle some. Sam Houston is going to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible, draining the clock.
At the time of publication, odds according to FanDuel have Texas as a 41.5-point favorite. Sam Houston is not going to keep this game close, but if the offense can score once, the Bearkats will cover. Sam Houston is not going to win, but they are going to cover in this one.
