Lincoln Riley and USC are looking to make a statement in Week 1 of the 2025 college football season in their matchup with Missouri State. After going just 7-6 in their first year in the Big 10, the Trojans expect to compete at a much higher level with their feet now beneath them. Ahead of the college football Week 1 matchup, we will be making our USC-Missouri State bold predictions.
Although their 7-6 record suggests mediocrity, the Trojans were much better than their results indicated in 2024. USC only lost one game by double digits, its final matchup with No. 5-ranked Notre Dame. They suffered three “bad” losses to Minnesota, Maryland and Washington, but were otherwise competitive with Michigan and Penn State, while securing wins over LSU, Rutgers and Nebraska.
USC lost more starters than it typically does, but added substantial talent from the college football transfer portal once again. Although just 10 starters return, Riley obtained an underrated transfer class. Eli Sanders, Prince Strachan, J'onre Reed, Jamaal Jarrett and Bishop Fitzgerald are among the incoming talent the Trojans expect to make an immediate impact.
All eyes will be on USC in the matchup, but the game will mark a monumental moment in the Missouri State football program. The contest will be the Bears' first as an FBS program, signaling their transition to the next level in 2025.
With multiple marquee matchups in college football Week 1, USC will not make headlines for its matchup with Missouri State. However, that does not diminish its importance to Riley and the Trojans, who desperately need to make a statement and hit the ground running.
Before the game begins, we will outline our USC-Missouri State Week 1 predictions.
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Jayden Maiava, USC offense make a statement in Week 1
For a while, it looked like Miller Moss would become Lincoln Riley's next great quarterback at USC. After backing up Caleb Williams in 2023, Moss shone in the 2023 Holiday Bowl against Louisville to cement himself as the starter in 2024. However, despite performing well early in the year, Moss hit a plateau, causing Riley to swap him for Jayden Maiava.
Maiava, the 2023 Mountain West Freshman of the Year at UNLV, ended the year on a high note, eclipsing 250 passing yards in three of his four starts. He also guided the Trojans to a 3-1 finish, with just a few mistakes preventing USC from threatening an upset of Notre Dame.
Regardless, there were still some fans unhappy with the quarterback change, who remain upset with Riley for chosing Maiava over Moss. Any potential doubters would be silenced with an elite Week 1 performance. It is difficult to turn heads against a lower-level opponent, but Maiava has stuffed the box score at an absurd rate since taking over under center.
Surprisingly, Missouri State will be the softest opponent Maiava will ever face in his three-year college football career. He did not take over at UNLV until Week 4 of the 2023 season and has never been given a softball since. Maiava is averaging 283.75 passing yards as the starter at USC entering a matchup with the worst defense he has faced since high school.
Missouri State went 8-5 in the FCS in 2024, but it does not have the speed to match USC. Maiava, Eli Sanders, Makai Lemon and Ja'Kobi Lane will all be too quick for the Bears' defense. All four could explode right away. Lemon, who led the team with 764 receiving yards in 2024, has been particularly impressive throughought the offseason.
Entering the 2025 college football season, USC's defense is its biggest question mark, not its offense. Expect a massive statement from the Trojans' offense against Missouri State in Week 1.
Jacob Clark keeps Missouri State in the game
The USC offense should shine, but Missouri State's could also be sneakily impressive. Riley returns just four defensive starters, and though he added several intriguing transfers, defense has always been the Trojans' Achilles heel.
USC enters the game as a five-touchdown favorite for a reason, but Missouri State has a talented roster. They averaged 35 points per game in 2024, including a 34-point game against Ball State, their only FBS opponent on the year.
Quarterback Jacob Clark is the engine to the offense, and one who will be a significant part of the Bears' FBS transition. Clark, a Minnesota transfer, has elite size with a 6-foot-5, 220-pound frame and is a legitimate talent. He threw for 3,604 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and six interceptions in 2024.
The talent on Missouri State's roster goes beyond Clark. The Bears have 29 FBS transfers on their team, including 15 from power conferences. Former Nebraska receiver Isaiah McMorris, former Georgia Tech receiver James Blackstrain and former Oregon State defensive end DJ Wesolak will all be relied on for significant contribution out of the gate.
Despite the lack of continuity, USC will clearly be the best defense Clark and Missouri State have faced in the last three years. However, Clark will do enough to at least keep the game close early and force fans to notice him.
Entering this matchup with USC, Missouri State has faced three power conference opponents in the last four years. They scored at least 17 points in all three games, and pushed No. 10-ranked Arkansas in 2022 and No. 22-ranked Oklahoma State in 2021.
Eli Sanders records 150 rushing yards
Of the new weapons who will debut for USC in Week 1, Eli Sanders is the most interesting. Riley has high hopes for Boise State transfer Prince Strachan and former Auburn wideout Jay Fair, but Sanders has the highest expectations of the group.
After spending his first three seasons with Iowa State before transferring to New Mexico in 2024, Sanders joined USC as his third team in as many years. He landed in Los Angeles following the departures of Woody Marks and Quinten Joyner, making him the Trojans' next starting running back.
Although he does not have the same level of prestige as Marks or Joyner, Sanders dominated with 1,063 rushing yards at New Mexico in 2024. His lack of consistent success at Iowa State is worrisome, but Sanders certainly looked like an elite running back who is more than capable of contributing at a higher level with the Lobos. With USC, Sanders now gets to work behind the best offensive line of his career.
Sanders' true tests will come later in the year, but he has to take advantage of USC's soft matchups with Missouri State and Georgia Southern to begin the 2025 college football season. The biggest advantage power schools tend to have over lesser competition comes up front, where the Trojans should dominate the line of scrimmage.
Missouri State struggled to defend the run in 2024, allowing 177.9 rushing yards per game. In their lone FBS game in 2024, the Bears ceded 103 rushing yards to Ball State running back Braedon Sloan. Not only is Sanders a better running back than Sloan, but USC's offensive line is at an entirely different level.
USC will not likely match its ground production from 2024, but Sanders should get off to a great start. Look for him to establish himself as the Trojans' starter with a massive performance in Week 1 and potentially flirt with 200 rushing yards.
