The latest College Football Playoff rankings are out. Miami is currently ranked 13th, behind teams such as Notre Dame, Alabama, Utah, and BYU. The CFP Chairman tried to explain the ranking for Miami, but regardless, the team is ranked too low in the latest rankings.
Miami is now 8-2 on the season. They opened up with a win over Notre Dame, and added wins over ranked teams in South Florida and Florida State before their first loss. It was a 24-21 loss to Louisville to give Miami its first loss. After a win over Stanford, Miami fell to SMU in overtime. They have since won two straight games.
Miami does not have the easiest schedule to finish the season. They visit Virginia Tech, which is having a down season, but could have a bump from the recent hiring of James Franklin. They then end the season with a road trip to Pitt, which could still be fighting for a spot in the ACC title game.
Miami is behind Notre Dame
“I think when you look, Notre Dame and Miami, we really compare the losses of the two teams,” CFP chairman Hunter Urachek said when speaking after the rankings reveal. “Miami has lost to two unranked teams. Notre Dame has lost to two teams that are ranked in our top 13, so we really haven't compared those two teams. They haven't been in similar comparison pools to date, but Miami is creeping up into that range where they will be compared to Notre Dame if something happens above them.”
Urachek's explanation is true, but it also leaves out other major factors. The obvious one is the Miami win over Notre Dame. Miami took a 27-24 win over Notre Dame to start the season, led by Carson Beck. The Miami team has not changed a ton since then. They struggled on third down in the game, but overcame it. Further, the Hurricanes forced two turnovers, something they have done all year. The team was also led by Carson Beck, and when he has been solid this year, Miami has generally won.
Regardless, there are some small changes from the first game to now. CJ Carr was making his first start and has improved for Notre Dame. Still, the Canes have improved on defense and are currently a top-ten defense.
Meanwhile, the chairman bemoaned the losses for Miami. Notre Dame has two losses this year. One is to Miami, while the other is to Texas A&M. Regardless, the next best win is over USC. That is followed by a win over Navy. Miami has lost to Louisville and SMU, but defeated South Florida. They also have the win over Notre Dame and could still get a win over Pitt. Louisville is 7-3, and SMU is also 7-3. Miami is not losing to cupcake opponents, and while they are not ranked, they are not bottom feeders. Miami deserves credit for the win over Notre Dame, but is not getting it.
The Louisville factor
While the loss to SMU was an issue, there is also the loss to Louisville. Miami is not getting credit for Louisville being a solid opponent. Louisville deserves some credit for being a quality team.
To begin with, the team is 7-3. The three losses are by a combined seven points, with two of them being in overtime. The Cardinals are ten points away from being undefeated and making the Miami loss look like the Texas A&M loss for Notre Dame. Meanwhile, Louisville did not blow out the Hurricanes. It was a three-point game, and Miami still had a chance to win late in the game.
Louisville has also played some quality games. They beat James Madison, who could be a CFP contender, and whose only loss of the year is to Louisville. The Cardinals all beat Pittsburgh, who could still make a run at the ACC title. One of the losses is to Virginia, which right now could also be playing for the ACC title. Still, Louisville could make the loss more interesting this week. They visit SMU, and a blowout loss could make Miami look worse overall.
Currently, the discounting of the Louisville loss for Miami is causing a drop in the rankings, which is not a fair drop.
Can the ACC get two teams in?
The biggest question is, can the ACC get two teams into the playoffs? Last year, they did, but it also took SMU having a historic season. SMU had just two losses, with one being in the ACC title game by just three points.
Miami has an almost impossible path to win the ACC this year. It is nearly a negligible percentage that Miami can make it to the ACC Title Game, let alone win the game as well. This means, for Miami to make it to the CFP game, the ACC would need to have two teams in the playoff.
The most likely scenario is that Virginia and Georgia Tech will be in the ACC Title game. Georgia Tech could help the case of the ACC if they win the title and also beat Georgia. Virginia winning could hurt the chances of Miami tremendously. UVA has a win over Louisville, which has also defeated Miami. This makes Miami look like the third-best team, not just a team that slipped up twice. If the ACC is going to get two teams in, and one of them being Miami, Georgia Tech likely needs to win the conference.
Currently, Miami is ranked too low. There is no justification for ranking Miami below Notre Dame. Justification could come, but if Miami keeps winning and things keep falling into place, Miami should be above Notre Dame in the rankings.
