There are just two weeks left in the college football season. The top five-ranked conference champions get a guaranteed trip to the College Football Playoffs. After Week 12, few spots have been decided in conference title games, and it is time to break down all the scenarios for each conference in their title game.
The American
The American currently has four teams with just one loss in conference play, while also having South Florida with two losses. Some of the three-loss programs, such as Memphis, are technically still alive, but would need a miracle.
Navy is 6-1 in conference play, but may not be in the driver's seat to make the title game. They need to win over Memphis to start; a loss will knock them out. They also clinch with losses by North Texas, Tulane, and East Carolina. Tulane has the tiebreaker over ECU, while North Texas has the tiebreaker over Navy. If all four win out, it will come down to a tiebreaker between Navy and Tulane. The final tie-breaker is win percentage, which gets interesting with the fact that Navy still has a game with Army the week after the championship game.
North Texas is in a great spot. Due to their win over Navy this year, if they win out, they will be in the title game. A loss will likely take them out.
Tulane is also in a solid spot. If they win out, it could come down to a tiebreaker. Still, they get in with two wins and a loss by Navy or North Texas.
East Carolina is in a tough spot. They need to win out, and need a loss by Tulane, plus a loss by Navy, or North Texas. Due to having three losses, they have to have the better conference record.
South Florida is still alive, but it not only needs to win out but also needs Navy to win. They then need North Texas to lose once, Tulane to lose twice, and East Carolina to lose once. They are long shots to make it after the loss to Navy.
ACC
The ACC is a little simpler, but not by much. Currently, four teams have just one loss, while two other teams have two.
Georgia Tech gets in with a win over Pitt this week. A loss would need Virginia to lose to Virginia Tech and SMU to lose to Louisville or Cal.
Virginia is also in a solid spot. It starts with a win over Virginia Tech. If Georgia Tech beats Pitt, they will be in. If not, they need a loss from SMU or to win on a tiebreaker, which they currently have.
Pitt still has a chance, but needs help. They need to win out, have SMU lose a game, and Virginia win over Virginia Tech. The other option is that both Pitt and SMU win out, but also that Virginia falls to Virginia Tech. If SMU and Virginia win out, they will be on the outside
SMU has to win out and needs a ton of help. They need Virginia Tech to beat Virginia, Pitt to beat Georgia Tech, but then Pitt to lose to Miami.
Miami still has a chance, but it is a slim one. They need Virginia Tech to knock off Pitt, and then Virginia to beat Virginia Tech. Beyond that, they need Pitt to beat Georgia Tech while Duke beats North Carolina and SMU beats Louisville. They then need Cal to beat SMU and Wake Forest to beat Duke. It is a small path, but still there.
Big 12
The Big 12 is a massive group of confusion, as is normal. There is actually a way for a six-way tie at the top of the conference. Still, there are some simple solutions.
Texas Tech gets in with a win over West Virginia. If they lose, they need an Arizona State or BYU to lose.
BYU gets in by winning its last two games. A loss to Cincinnati will end their chances unless Cincinnati loses to TCU next week. A loss to UCF would need an Arizona State loss.
Utah needs a lot of help. They need to win out and have BYU lose out to have any shot. They have lost just twice, but it is to BYU and Texas Tech. They are also the top team in the six-way tie scenario.
Houston still has a chance, but it needs help. They need BYU to lose out, and Houston has to win out. They also need a loss from Cincinnati.
Arizona State also has a path, but they need to win out. The team also needs losses from Utah and Houston, plus a loss from BYU. They also get in with the six-way tie scenario.
Finally, Cincinnati has a chance still. If they win out, they need a loss from Utah and Houston. They also need Arizona State to lose to Arizona.
Big Ten
The Big Ten is simple. It is a lot of win and in certain situations. Currently, two teams have yet to lose in conference play, while three teams have just one loss.
Indiana is in with a win over Purdue. They will also get in with an Oregon win over USC and an Ohio State win over Michigan. If Michigan wins, it would create a tiebreaker scenario that would likely support Indiana.
Ohio State is also win and in. If they beat Rutgers and Michigan, they are in. If they lose to Rutgers, they need an Oregon loss. If they lose to Michigan, they need a USC loss.
Oregon has the best shot of the one-loss teams. They cannot pass Indiana, but with two losses by Ohio State and winning out, they will be in. If Oregon beats USC and Ohio State loses to Michigan, they will also be in. If Ohio State loses to Rutgers and Oregon wins out, it will come down to a deeper tiebreaker, which currently favors the Buckeyes.
USC is also still alive. They need to win out and see Ohio State lose twice. It is a long shot, but the Trojans still have life.
Michigan needs to win out to make it, and then have a narrow path. They need Oregon to lose both games, and then USC to lose to UCLA.
Conference USA
Conference USA is down to three teams. Missouri State is not eligible to play in the conference title game in its first year in the conference.
Jacksonville State has the easiest path. They just need one win to get in. With a win over Kennsaw State, if Jacksonville State wins one of their last two games, they are in.
Western Kentucky gets in with a win over Jacksonville State the last week of the season.
Kennesaw State needs to either win out or win one of the last two games and have Western Kentucky lose to Jacksonville State.
MAC
The MAC has a ton of scenarios. Only five teams have been truly eliminated. Meanwhile, Kent State has less than a 1% chance to make it, while Ball State is also likely not to make it. Still, this leaves six teams.
Western Michigan is easy. If they win out, they are in. If not, they need a loss from Miami (OH) or Buffalo to make it.
Ohio is also in a solid spot. If they win out, they will most likely be in. It will be clinched if Toledo beats Central Michigan to end the season.
Toledo is also in a solid spot. If they win out, they would get in with help from the victory over Ohio.
Central Michigan faces Toledo in the last week of the season, and is in a similar spot. If they win out, they need a loss from Ohio.
Buffalo and Miami (OH) are also alive. Buffalo faces Miami (OH) this week, and the loser is out. If Buffalo wins out, they are in with a second loss from Toledo or Central Michigan. Miami (OH) needs the same plus a loss from Ohio.
Mountain West
The Mountain West has San Diego State with one conference loss, but five teams with two losses. San Diego State has just one loss, but Fresno State, Boise State, New Mexico, UNLV, and Hawaii all have two losses.
San Diego State gets in with winning out. If they lose to San Jose State and then beat New Mexico, they are in. If San Diego State loses to New Mexico, they need either Hawaii or New Mexico to lose a game.
UNLV needs losses for both Boise State and New Mexico to get in. They will lose a tiebreaker to either team. Further, they most likely need a loss from Fresno State.
If Fresno State wins out, they get in if Boise State wins out as well. If Boise State loses, it will need a tiebreaker over UNLV.
New Mexico gets in by winning out and a Boise State loss. Meanwhile, Boise State gets in by winning out with a Fresno State loss. If Fresno State wins out, Boise State is out.
Meanwhile, Hawaii has an outside chance as well. They would need to win out, with a loss for Fresno State. They could also jump up if they win out and San Diego State loses a game. If San Diego State and Fresno State lose, Hawaii gets to play for a title.
SEC
The SEC also has multiple situations. Four teams are still alive for the conference title. Texas A&M still has the easiest path, but multiple teams could make a mess in the conference title race.
Texas A&M has a simple path. If they win against Texas, they are in. If they lose, they need help from Florida and Auburn to get in.
Georgia no longer controls its destiny, as they are done with SEC play. Right now, they get in with an Alabama loss or a Texas A&M loss to Texas. Still, they may be fine just winning out and heading to the playoffs.
Due to the win over Georgia, Alabama is also win and in. If they beat Auburn, they make it to the SEC Championship; if they lose, they are out.
Even with one loss, Ole Miss is currently on the outside looking in. They would need to beat Mississippi State, and have both Texas A&M plus Alabama lose to make it in.
Sun Belt
The Sun Belt is the last conference with divisions. James Madison has won the East and will be in the conference title game.
Southern Miss gets in with a win over Troy in the last week of the season.
If Troy and Southern Miss both win next week, the game the last game of the season will determine the division champion.
If Southern Miss loses twice, and both Arkansas State and Troy win out. Arkansas State is in. If Arkansas State loses a game, Troy is in.
Regardless, the winner of the West will have to face JMU, which will be playing for a playoff spot, potentially.
