Who's ready for bowl season? The most wonderful time of the entire college football season has finally arrived with some New Mexico Bowl action taking place in the heart of Albuquerque as the SMU Mustangs of the AAC Conference take on the BYU Cougars. Let's take an exclusive look at our college football odds series where our SMU-BYU prediction and pick will be revealed for all to see.
After compiling a respectable 7-5 record and finishing in fourth place within the American Athletic Conference, the Mustangs come into the bowl season led under head coach Rhett Lashlee in his first season in University Park and has provided a much-needed spark to an SMU football program that has a storied past history.
When it comes to the BYU, the Cougars reached as high as #12 in the AP Poll after an impressive victory over highly-rated Baylor during the second week of the season before a loss to Oregon a week later that sent the season into a free fall. By the conclusion of the season-long campaign, the Cougars have been plagued by injuries and come into this one with a 7-5 record.
Here are the SMU-BYU college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
New Mexico Bowl Odds: SMU-BYU Odds
SMU: -4 (-115)
BYU: +4 (-105)
Over: 64.5 (-110)
Under: 64.5 (-110)
Why SMU Could Cover The Spread
Coming into this one as 3.5-point favorites, be on the lookout for the Mustangs to cover the spread by doing what they do best: airing out the football in the passing game. On the season, SMU accumulated nearly 324 passing games through the air and are led by former Oklahoma transfer QB Tanner Mordecai. The senior signal-caller playing in what will be his final collegiate game has racked up 70 touchdowns through the air and nearly 7,000 passing yards over the last couple of seasons with the Mustangs. With his name on a few of SMU's passing records, don't be surprised if Mordecai has one more trick left up his sleeve to lead his squad to a spread-covering victory.
Not only does SMU find its success by throwing the ball, but pounding the rock and playing hard-nosed football may be the special formula for finding a way to cover. On paper, the Mustangs usually average around 150 rushing yards per game and are facing off with a BYU defense that is often times vulnerable versus the run.
All in all, SMU's biggest advantage in this one comes in the form of BYU's slew of injuries that will obviously limit what they can do. With the Mustangs nearly at full strength, the Cougars are expected to be without a multitude of impact players that only will give SMU an advantage throughout the 60 minutes of action out on the gridiron.
Why BYU Could Cover The Spread
After starting off so hot to begin the season, there is no doubt that the Cougars ending to the campaign was a disappointing one. While they are lucky enough to go bowling in 2022, BYU's hopes of a New Year's Bowl were quickly dashed and now they must pick up the pieces if they want to end the season on a positive note.
As previously mentioned, the Cougars have massive injury concerns and none other with the most important position on the field as QB Jaren Hall is currently dealing with a nagging ankle injury. When healthy, Hall is among one of the better dual-threat field generals in the country as he has amassed over 3,100 yards through the air and 31 touchdown passes to only 7 interceptions. On the ground, he has also added 346 rushing yards. While reports are stating that he is most likely doubtful to play, BYU may be forced to turn to backup quarterback and Boise State transfer Cade Finnegan to fill Hall's shoes. Up to this point, Finnegan has yet to attempt a pass this season.
With the instability at the quarterback position, it will be extremely important for the Cougars' offensive line to dominate in the trenches and open up some running lanes for BYU's halfbacks. Known to be a physical team unit when they want to be, BYU has averaged a splendid 173 rushing yards per contest and is going up against a susceptible SMU defense that has allowed more than over 200 yards on the ground. Without a doubt, establishing the running game will be the single most important aspect of the game that BYU needs to control if they want to keep up with SMU's high-octane offensive attack.
Final SMU-BYU Prediction & Pick
While it is oftentimes difficult to predict which school shows up for play and the other is just there for a vacation during bowl season, it is quite evident that SMU has the clear advantage in this one. BYU will have difficulty slowing down SMU on defense and they will not be able to generate enough offense to cover.
Final SMU-BYU Prediction & Pick: SMU -4 (-115)
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