Jerry Kill and New Mexico State made their second bowl game since 2000 last season year. It is now time to continue our college football odds series with a New Mexico State football win total prediction and pick.

Kill has been a winner in his career, turning around programs. He took over a Southern Illinois program that won just one game his first season. He took them to consistent FCS tournaments before heading to Northern Illinois. Kill took the Huskies to three straight bowl games before turning Minnesota into an annual bowl team. Last year he took New Mexico State to a six-win season and a win in the Quick Lane Bowl.

Back on offense is a solid line. They return three starters from last year, and the two new starters are both ready to step in. They will get a good push up front for Star Thomas and Jamoni Jones. Thomas and Jones combined for 11 touchdowns last year and over 900 yards on the ground. Also back is Diego Pavia. Pavia ran for over 500 yards and eight scores last year, including 65 yards in the bowl game last year. He may be the biggest reason the Aggies went a bowl. Against Liberty last year he ran for 125 yards and scored six total touchdowns. Pavia also gets back four of his top five receivers to throw to.

The defense was a big surprise. The defense was 127th in the nation in total defense and 128 in scoring before Kill got there. Last year, they finished 30th in total defense, 57th in third-down defense, and 47th in scoring defense. They allowed just 23.92 points per game last year. The defense needs to get more turnovers this year and if they do, they should win plenty of games.

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: New Mexico State Over/Under Win Total Odds

Over 6.5 wins: +134

Under 6.5 wins: -164

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Why New Mexico State Can Win 6.5 Games 

New Mexico State football has their line set at bowl eligibility. With 13 games on the schedule, due to the Aggies having to travel to Hawaii for a game, they have to win seven to get to a bowl. The extra game is a home game that is an option to offset travel costs from the game in Hawaii. The first game of the year is week zero against UMASS. New Mexico State ranks 122nd currently in SP+ according to ESPN's Bill Connelly. The first game of the year is against someone ranked lower than them. They are currently 8.5 points favorites and should start 1-0. Western Illinois was 0-11 last year in FCS play and should provide New Mexico State their second win of the year the next week.

The schedule gets rougher after that. First is a game at Liberty. The Aggies won this last year, but that was against a Liberty squad that had their coach flirting with other teams and had given up. That will not be the case this year. Then, they travel to rival New Mexico. New Mexico may be one of the worst programs in FBS. The offense was bad last year, and the defense lost a ton in the secondary. It is a 3-1 start for the Aggies before heading to Hawaii. Hawaii plays hard and throws the ball a ton, but just does not have the talent. They struggle on third downs heavily as well, something the Aggies will exploit.

After a bye, FIU comes to town. FIU will be missing their top running back, replacing three offensive linemen and their top two wideouts. This is from an offense that was 116th in the nation last year. Another win gets the Aggies to five. Win six will come against Sam Houston. This is a new program for FBS and it struggled last year. Many key players redshirted and they should be better, but still, this is a jump up in competition. This leaves New Mexico State needing just one more win. That could come the next week against UTEP.

UTEP has a good line but lost their top running back.  Gavin Hardison is a quarterback, but his star receivers are gone. There is not enough talent on offense for them to score enough to get the win. A losing streak is going to follow. They go to Louisiana Teck, host Middle Tennessee, go to Western Kentucky, and then Auburn. Most likely it will be four straight losses, but they can end the season on a high note with Jacksonville State. As long as they can slow down the Gamecocks' running game, which they should be able to. The Aggies can win eight games.

Why New Mexico State Can Not Win 6.5 Games

According to ESPN's SP+, New Mexico State has eight games that project a scoring margin under a touchdown. That means eight close games. The bad news for the Aggies is that four of the five non-close games are all looking like losses. First is Auburn near the end of the season. The other three are Western Kentucky, Liberty, and Louisiana Tech. The Aggies will most likely need a major upset to pull a win out of those four games. Still, with four losses, there are wins. The easy one is Western Illinois, and that will most likely. UMASS should be another win as well, as they were a 1-11 squad last year without any major signs of improvement. Still, seven more games sit, and the Aggies must win six of them to hit the over.

New Mexico is going to be favored against the Aggies this year. New Mexico lost this game last year and while they lost parts, they bring in some quality new ones. Dylan Hopkis follows Bryant Vincent from UAB to give them a quality quarterback. Vincent is also amazing at putting together a running game regardless of who they have at running back. Chrisitan Washington will expose the lack of defensive back depth for the Aggies as he makes big plays with great speed.

Hawaii could be another loss. Hawaii is much better at home than on the road, and SP+ notes they will be favored in this game. The Rainbow Warriors brought in Cam Stone from Wyoming and he will feast on Diego Pavia's lack of accuracy. The rivalry game with UTEP will be another loss. The UTEP offensive line will be too much for New Mexico State. UTEP has won this game twice in a row and will control the ball, keeping New Mexico State's offense off the field.

Final New Mexico State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

The question for this one comes down to how much magic can Jerry Kill get out of his team. This is a tough schedule with many games that could be very close. Kill is great in those games, but asking a team to win seven of them is tough. The Aggies will start 2-0, and beat FIU, Sam Houston, and Jacksonville State. The overcomes down to New Mexico and Hawaii. They get them both. Jerry Kill gets the Aggies to back-to-back bowls.

Final New Mexico State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 6.5 (+134)