The 2024 NFL Draft seems to be set at the top with USC quarterback Caleb Williams long-earmarked for the Chicago Bears. After that, though, the intrigue begins. Everyone knows the Washington Commanders will also take a QB at No. 2, but who that is will impact the rest of the draft. LSU’s Jayden Daniels and North Carolina’s Drake Maye have been the frontrunners for the second spot, but recent betting line movement now suggests the Commanders could take Michigan signal-caller JJ McCarthy at No. 2.
Commanders-JJ McCarthy odds are dropping dramatically
While betting on non-competitive events like the NFL draft isn’t legal in all states, it is allowed in some, and watching the betting lines move in those areas can be a good indicator of where a player will go in April.
And as the buzz from the combine, his former coach Jim Harbaugh, and the Michigan Pro Day grows, the line on JJ McCarthy being the No. 2 pick is plummeting.
“DraftKings Sportsbook has moved McCarthy from +2500 to be the second pick to +500, following his Pro Day workout and building chatter that the Commanders will opt for the guy who won a national championship in January,” Pro Football Talk reported on Tuesday.
While this line movement doesn’t mean everything and a lot can change between late March and late April, it is interesting to note from a group of people (Las Vegas bookmakers) who make their living by being in the know than the average sports fan.
Washington has a tough decision in the 2024 NFL Draft
While there are as many as six quarterbacks who could go in Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft, only Caleb Williams is thought of as a “sure thing” right now. And even sure-thing No. 1 picks (Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield, Jameis Williams) can have varying degrees of success in the league.
After that, there are questions about the next three QBs who will come off the board in JJ McCarthy, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels.
For McCarthy, the question is, if he is as good as his Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh says, then why didn’t the Wolverines seem to trust him to carry them in the biggest games?
Against Penn State, McCarthy threw the ball just eight times. Versus Ohio State, he slung it 20 times. And in the national championship, he threw it just 18 times. Yes, Michigan had a great running game to rely on but that won’t be the case with the Commanders or any other team that drafts him, so can he be counted on to throw it 40 times a game in the NFL when the script calls for it?
Moving on to Jayden Daniels, the Heisman Trophy winner is listed at 6-foot-2, 210 pounds. However, he was one of only two players who refused to submit to height and weight measurements at the combine.
Even if Daniels is over 200 pounds (which there are doubts about), the way he plays begs the question, can a skinny crash-test dummy with no regard for his own safety when running survive long in the NFL?
Then there is Drake Maye, who has no questions about his size at 6-foot-4, 223 pounds. And he can sling it when he needs to, throwing over 40 times in a game seven times over the last two seasons.
The issue here is that the whole doesn’t seem to equal the sum of his impressive parts.
Maye looks the part but he’s never put it together to be an elite, team-carrying QB at North Carolina. Sure, his supporting cast wasn’t anywhere near what JJ McCarthy was playing with, but his record should be better than 17-9 the past two seasons.
In the NFL draft, beauty is in the eye of the beholder, so if the Commanders do, in fact, love McCarthy and want to draft him, that choice is as good as any other with what we know about the less than 50-50 first-round QB success rate.
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