This weekend will feature some fun NFL action, with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs traveling to the City of Angels for a showdown with the Chargers. Although the decision to move the Buffalo game to Detroit robbed us of an all-time great snow game, there is still no shortage of good games this weekend. Keep reading and stay tuned to our NFL odds series to find out some opportunities I have my eye on for making money this weekend!
All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Philadelphia Eagles – Indianapolis Colts
Philadelphia -7 (-105)
The Eagles may have given up their undefeated record, but they are still an extremely talented team. The Eagles will look to get back into the winning column this week with a victory over the struggling Indianapolis Colts. While their dream for a perfect season may be over, all of Philly's other goals remain in reach.
One reason for my confidence in the Eagles comes down to mismatches. Philadelphia has an elite defensive line, and the Colts rank last in the NFL in terms of protecting their quarterback. The Colts give up 3.6 sacks per game to opponents and this will not cut it against the elite pass rush of the Eagles.
While the Eagles may not be quite as good as their record indicates, there is a significant talent disparity between these two teams, and the Eagles should absolutely win this game by at least a touchdown.
The Eagles are an extremely balanced team, with a top 3 scoring offense and a top-10-scoring defense.
While the Colts rank just outside the top 10 in scoring defense, they rank 30th in the league in scoring offense. This inability to put points on the board, which will prove even harder against an elite defense, will prevent the Colts from keeping this game competitive.
New York Jets – New England Patriots
Jets moneyline (+148)
History says that the Jets simply cannot beat the New England Patriots. However, history does not tell the whole story. The Patriots no longer have Tom Brady, who is arguably the greatest quarterback of all time. The Jets have a talented if inconsistent young quarterback in Zach Wilson with several pieces surrounding him. Garrett Wilson is an electrifying receiver who is quickly building a rapport with his quarterback
This Wilson-to-Wilson connection has proven successful this season. On the defensive side of the ball, Sauce Gardner routinely shut down the best wide receivers in the league.
With the Jets having a competent passing offense now (roughly 220 yards per game through the air and slightly over one passing touchdown per game), they will be able to move the ball and put themselves in a position to put points on the board. The Patriots aren’t an awful team this year, but they are slightly below average, and Bill Belichick can only do so much from the sidelines. The Jets, meanwhile, are an average team full of young players trying to put it all together. On a neutral field, I’d rate the Jets as slight favorites. In New England, I’ll move this game to a toss-up. Given that, I’ll take the underdog and the plus money all day.
Kansas City Chiefs – Los Angeles Chargers
Over 51.5 (-118)
Patrick Mahomes versus Justin Herbert. Both of these offenses are elite, and this game could quickly turn into a shootout. I think Kansas City will ultimately emerge victorious at the end of this contest, but I’m more confident in the total for this game. I could see both teams scoring 28+, which would easily cash the over. However, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Chiefs put up closer to 40. Kansas City boasts the number-one scoring offense in the entire National Football League, while Los Angeles has the third-worst-scoring defense in the league.
With the Chiefs averaging 30 points per game and facing this easy matchup, they should easily exceed their season average this weekend. If Kansas City scores 31 or more points, I will feel very confident in this bet cashing. 31 is a pretty easy goal for the league's top offense against a struggling defense, and I wouldn't be surprised if Kansas City scores closer to 40 points in this game.
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