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On Sunday, Super Bowl LVI will be played at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, California. After 54 consecutive Super Bowls where no team played at home, this will mark the second consecutive year that will be the case. Last season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hammered the Kansas City Chiefs in front of their home crowd in Florida.
Home field has not necessarily been the kindest place to Los Angeles this season. They have more losses (3) at home than they do on the road (2). But Super Bowls notoriously are not the loudest, most raucous environments anyway. So that more than likely will not sway this game one way or the other.
Click here for the odds on Super Bowl LVI, courtesy of FanDuel.
However, their is one undeniable x-factor that will help determine the winner of this game more than any other. But I am not just going to tell you what it is and give you some statistics. I am going to put that information to use in real-game situations to explain why it will be the biggest difference in the game.
Undeniable Biggest X-Factor To Determine Super Bowl LVI Winner
BENGALS O-LINE VS AARON DONALD & CO
There are a lot of stars in this year's Super Bowl. The Bengals feature the rock star quarterback Joe Burrow, a running back who has been one of the best for a few years now in Joe Mixon, and a trio of receivers. The third most valuable is a guy in Tyler Boyd who posted back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons in 2018 and 2019 before taking a back seat to Tee Higgins and then Ja'Marr Chase.
Meanwhile, the Rams counter with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr, Aaron Donald and Von Miller. But it's the last two that will most likely determine the outcome of this year's Super Bowl.
It's been well publicized. The Bengals offensive line is the biggest weakness of their team. Some people have called it the worst offensive line to ever appear in the Super Bowl. They allowed Joe Burrow to be sacked nine times in the AFC Divisional Round win against the Tennessee Titans. Yes, he might have been sacked nine times, but they won that game.
People will argue ‘well, Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions and that's why the Titans lost.' I would respond to that and ask them, could you not foresee Matthew Stafford throwing a couple of interceptions Sunday? I can. Bengals offensive coordinator is confident that Cincinnati's line will hold up.
Bengals OC Brian Callahan "expecting a big game" from oft-maligned offensive line vs. Ramshttps://t.co/dQ0pV4o4MA pic.twitter.com/kjko6jRRUj
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) February 9, 2022
But it's not about the sacks. It is about the down and distance. Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense cannot afford to be facing third and long all game. If that happens, that means Burrow will have to hold the ball longer than he wants to; advantage Rams.
STAY AHEAD OF THE CHAINS
However, if they can figure out a way to stay ahead of the chains, and put their offense in third and medium or third and short situations, it opens up the entire playbook.
Cincinnati finished the regular season 12th in the NFL converting third downs. But in the playoffs, they have turned that number up considerably. The Bengals have converted almost 49 percent of their third downs. They did that many times by winning on first or second down. That has never been more crucial for the Bengals than this Sunday at the Super Bowl.
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But that is going to prove very difficult for Cincinnati to accomplish. The first month of the season, the Rams rush defense was among the worst in the league. But from October on, they were easily one of the best in the NFL. Los Angeles ended the season sixth in rush defense (side note, the Bengals finished fifth). It will likely prove difficult for Joe Mixon and the Bengals running game to find much room.
So, the screen game, which we saw a lot of against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship, might prove essential. As will the short passing game.
Ja'Marr Chase might see a lot of Jalen Ramsey in single coverage. Tee Higgins will very likely see a lot of press man coverage. So it will be incumbent upon Tyler Boyd and CJ Uzomah over the middle of the field to have efficient games.
On Friday, the Bengals got good news on Uzomah.
Per Zac Taylor on the pool report: CJ Uzomah is on track to play Sunday. #Bengals @fox19
— Jeremy Rauch (@FOX19Jeremy) February 11, 2022
A lot of former players and media members alike call Aaron Donald one of the best defensive players they have ever seen. If that is an accurate assessment, he should dominate Sunday and win Super Bowl LVI. Because if Burrow is facing pressure all game, it's unlikely the cardiac cats can do it again.
