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The Cleveland Browns will play in their first playoff game since the 2002 NFL season Sunday, as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Looking to secure their first postseason victory since 1995, the Browns will be facing an opponent they played only a week prior in their regular-season finale.
While the prospect of NFL football in January is enough to excite any Cleveland fan, the Browns will have the added pressure of fielding a roster and coaching staff that has been decimated by injuries and the Coronavirus. Forced to place four players on the restricted list–including left guard Joel Bitonio–Cleveland will also be without head coach Kevin Stefanski and two of his assistants, who similarly tested positive for the virus. Led by special teams coach Mike Preifer, the Browns will attempt to upset a franchise that has long tormented them if they wish their season to continue.
Though they will be working in less than ideal conditions, the opportunity to advance in the postseason is one the entire organization will almost certainly relish, regardless of the circumstances surrounding it. With no guarantee that it won't be another 18 years before they are here again, the time to win is now for the Browns.
With that in mind, here are our four bold predictions for the Cleveland Browns as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Wild Card game.
1. Browns' secondary saves the day with 0 missed tackles
None of Cleveland's defensive stats jump off the page. The team ranks a mere 17th in total yards allowed, 16th in sack percentage, and 21st in points allowed across the entire league. And yet, you can't help escape the feeling that those middling numbers disguise a unit with a higher ceiling.
Led by Myles Garrett, the Browns defensive unit has battled injuries, Covid, and underperformance for most of the season in putting together a campaign that was just enough to vault them into contention. Against a Steelers offense that can bury teams under points, they'll have to reach their full potential.
Thankfully for Cleveland, they'll only have to accomplish one defensive fundamental to do just that Sunday: don't miss a tackle.
Working opposite a Pittsburgh offensive line that is one of the most challenging in the league to figure out, the Browns may be unable to rely on Garrett to bully his way towards success. With the Steelers line operating with a conservative approach–slowly retreating towards the quarterback to keep defenders in front of them and preventing a complete collapse of the pocket–Pittsburgh has excelled at getting the ball out quickly, with Ben Rothlisberger's passes taking a mere two seconds. With defenses having few opportunities to attack the play-caller, they have most often surrendered to a unit ranked first in sack percentage allowed.
While this would typically be a sign of an effective and talented group, there are indicators that this may be a bit of a mirage. Among them is the team's anemic 84-yard rushing average per game and Rothlisberger's inability to complete passes downfield, a stark departure from his profile in previous seasons. Given this, it would appear that the coaching staff's decision to implement quick out plays isn't merely the result of their QB's quick-release but rather a necessity for a unit that is unable to hold the fort for very long.
With Garrett ready to burst through the seams at a moment's notice, and the offensive line unable to stop him, the Steelers should be as reliant on their short game as ever before against the Browns. With little airtime to hunt for interceptions, the Browns secondary must keep the wideouts from gaining yardage after the pass, shortening the field as much as possible. As long as Cleveland succeeds in wrapping targets up, it should corner a Pittsburgh offense that has been surprisingly one-dimensional for most of the season, leaving them little choice but to extend plays and face the wrath of Garrett and company.
Tackling may not be the most glamorous task, but it is a simple one, and the Browns' defensive backs will be up for the job.
2. Baker Mayfield is only sacked twice for the Browns
Speaking of offensive lines, the aforementioned loss of Joel Bitonio may prove as consequential as that of head coach Kevin Stefanski. Consistently ranked as one of the top left guards in the entire NFL, Bitonio's absence will not only impair the Browns' stout running game but force a heavier burden onto the shoulders of Baker Mayfield.
Though it may not seem very bold to predict that Mayfield will endure the same number of sacks he has averaged over the season, considering that he will be working shorthanded means that only two sacks may prove to be a minor miracle.
While Cleveland selected him with the first overall pick in the draft, hoping that he could alter the course of the franchise, the Browns' offensive attack has been generally conservative in employing the QB. Looking to control the game clock and time of possession, Cleveland has placed a higher priority on their running game while only asking Mayfield to complete shorter passes out of play-action. With the extra half-second afforded him, the play-caller has accrued a 63% completion percentage while simultaneously posting a career-low in total yards.
With his blindside suddenly vulnerable and one of the fiercest defensive lines in the entire league working across from him, Mayfield will no longer carry the luxuries that have ensured his success. Should the running game stall out behind a line no longer capable of creating gaps, look for the play-caller to be more aggressive rolling out of the pocket. While Mayfield's accuracy on throws while he is moving still leaves something to be desired, the quarterback has proven that he can alter games all by himself, with the Browns victory in early December against the Titans serving as an example.
Being proactive to ensure the offense keeps moving, rather than reactive once the pocket collapses, will be essential to Cleveland's success. While he may not be Tom Brady's second-coming the way many fans had hoped, Mayfield just needs to keep himself upright for the Browns to win.
3. Kareem Hunt shines… but as a receiver
With the Browns working behind a suddenly suspect offensive line and the Steelers rush defense particularly effective, questions abound over Clevelands' ability to run the ball. While the Browns will almost certainly continue to attack on the ground, its possible ineffectiveness will likely necessitate them to look elsewhere to generate points.
Enter Kareem Hunt, the receiver.
Given that the former Pro Bowl halfback has struggled for most of the year to gain yardage–including last week against the Steelers in which he managed a measly 37 yards on ten attempts–Cleveland could provide him a new look with the hope that the variety serves as a jumpstart. While the Browns haven't often employed him in the passing game this season, Hunt did take snaps out of the slot as recently as last season.
Though Cleveland may not employ quite that aggressively, the Browns could use Hunt on various screen and quick out passes to serve as a release valve for Mayfield as he looks to avoid pressure. Facing a team in the Steelers that appears uniquely suited to combat what the Browns do best, getting creative may turn out to be a necessity for the Browns.
4. Cleveland wins 21-17
While the Browns may find themselves on their back foot due to the Covid outbreak, Cleveland still possesses the top-line talent to compete and win against the Steelers. So long as they prevent Pittsburgh from turning the match into a shootout, the predictability of the Steelers' offensive attack should provide the edge the Browns defenders will need to deter Big Ben.
For a team that has been among the worst in sports over the past three decades, a playoff win could be the panacea for what has ailed the franchise. Against their biggest rival Sunday afternoon, they'll get it.
