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I may not know much, but I do know one thing; Baker Mayfield's stock is rising, and fast. When a quarterback gets a pairing of Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr., that tends to happen. When they break the record for most touchdown passes by a rookie quarterback, it helps. On the field, Mayfield is bringing the Cleveland Browns to legitimacy — and fantasy football squads.
For some, Mayfield stands as No. 1 quarterback in fantasy; to others, he's far from it. Mayfield, to many, is single-handily has one of the toughest fantasy football seasons to project. He's a second-year quarterback with a new(ish) coaching staff, weapons, and expectations.
However, projected stat lines from different networks remain eerily similar to each other, as indicated below.
- FanDuel: 4,390 pass yards, 33 pass touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 177 rush yards, 1 rush touchdown
- FantasyPros: 4,376 pass yards, 30 pass touchdown, 14 interceptions, 175 rush yards, 1 rush touchdown
- Scout: 4,575 pass yards, 31 pass touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 139 rush yards, 0 rush touchdowns
- Lineups: 4,298 pass yards, 29 pass touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 162 rush yards, 1 rush touchdown
- Bleacher Report: 4,402 pass yards, 33 pass touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 184 rush yards, 2 rush touchdowns
- ESPN: 4,257 pass yards, 31 pass touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 159 rush yards, 1 rush touchdown
- Cumulative average (rounded up): 4,383 pass yards, 31 pass touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 166 rush yards, 1 rush touchdown
Now, it shouldn't be too surprising to see all in a similar light. If one were to convert Mayfield's rookie season to a full year of play, they'd get a similar one to the 2019 cumulative average: 4,257 pass yards, 31 pass touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 150 rush yards, 0 rush touchdowns.
Let's use that average as a baseline for Mayfield, and take into account who he and his team are. Mayfield is one of the more talented young quarterbacks in the NFL; one that can read the field, deliver the ball accurately, push the pace, and understand the nuances of the position. If you weren't aware, he's a franchise quarterback.
His team, the Browns, possess one of the NFL's most frightening supporting casts. Their offensive line is stable, their wide receiving corps is impressive — so is their running back group –, their tight end David Njoku is a hyper-athlete, and head coach Freddie Kitchens may be one of the NFL's brightest, up-and-coming, offensive minds.
The Browns will be one of the more pass-happy teams in the NFL; they have every piece to do so. But, they also won't be afraid of the run — Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is an immensely talented duo. Don't expect them to be an Air Raid squad.
Nonetheless, I project a more efficient season, in terms of interceptions, from Mayfield. He made rookie mistakes last year and is one of the more accurate youngsters in the NFL. Though he's a gun-slinger, I expect him to cut down on the bone-headed plays.
In culmination, my projected stat line looks like the one below:
Baker Mayfield projected 2019 stat line: 4,350 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 150 rush yards, 1 rush touchdown
The stat line above is fairly conservative pertaining to yardage and sits close to the cumulative average. But there is a bump up in touchdowns. The Browns' rushing attack should help move the ball in the red zone, and he has a bevy of touchdown makers at his disposal. He also tends to do his best in this area.
As for interceptions, read above. The rush yards and touchdowns are sticking with other projections. Mayfield can scramble, but he's not a dual-threat, and the Browns have different, better, options to get into the endzone — including his arm.
This means, on my basis, that fantasy owners should expect a borderline top-5 quarterback. He shouldn't go over proven commodities, such as Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, or Andrew Luck, but his upside is as high as anybody else's. It's easy to envision an MVP season from Mayfield considering what he did with Kitchens in 2018, and what Beckham Jr. brings to the table.
But, for now, lets temper expectations, and settle the sophomore as a good, but not, the first quarterback taken, option.
