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The Philadelphia Eagles are sitting in the driver's seat to win the NFC East over the final three weeks of the season. The Eagles can clinch with a win over the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington on Saturday, and it would take a huge collapse for the Cowboys to catch them at this point. So what does Dallas' path to the Super Bowl look like? These are some of the best-case NFL Playoff scenarios for the Cowboys when it comes to the bracket and seeding.
As long as we're dreaming, let's take a look at how things shake out if the Cowboys manage to win out and steal the division from Philadelphia. It would take a win over Philly at home on Saturday plus two more on the road in Tennessee and Washington.
Meanwhile, the Eagles would have to lose their final two games of the season as well, home affairs with the New Orleans Saints and New York Giants. Let's say all of that happens as Jalen Hurts deals with an injury. That would make the Cowboys either the first or second seed in the NFC depending on what the Minnesota Vikings do. If Dallas ascended all the way to the first seed, they would take a bye in the first round of the playoffs. After the Wild Card Round, Dallas would take on the lowest remaining seed. If Dallas pulls off a division championship but the Vikings stay a game ahead in the standings, the Cowboys would play the seventh seed in the first round. As everything currently stands, that would be the Commanders.
A much more likely scenario is the Eagles not losing out and clinching the division no matter what the Cowboys do over the last few weeks of the regular season. In that case, there are a couple of ways that Dallas could start the postseason.
If the season ended today, Dallas would draw the first-place Tampa Bay Buccaneers out of the NFC South. The Bucs are 6-8, followed closely by the Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, and Atlanta Falcons all at 5-9. Tampa Bay doesn't appear to be the dominant force that they have been in recent years, but they've already beat Dallas this year. Tom Brady is also 7-0 for his career against the Cowboys, so going to his place in the first round doesn't feel like the best-case scenario for Dak Prescott and company. Fortunately it wouldn't take much for any one of the rest of the unimpressive NFC South to overtake Tampa Tom and the Buccaneers in the waning weeks of the regular season.
The Carolina Panthers are easily the best candidate to unseat Tampa Bay atop the NFC South. They already knocked off the Buccaneers on Oct. 23 and have a chance to win the season series on New Year's Day in Tampa Bay. The Panthers would also likely have to take care of business against at least one of their other two remaining matchups, the Detroit Lions at home on Saturday and the Saints in New Orleans in Week 18, but the path is definitely there. A trip to Carolina to face the Sam Darnold-led Panthers would be far preferable to a showdown with the arguable GOAT. A first-round date with the Carolina Panthers is Dallas' best-case scenario for the Wild Card Round.
Now let's talk Divisional Round opponents. Assuming the Cowboys draw Carolina in the first round and take care of business, Dallas is likely in the hot seat to travel to Philadelphia. Assuming they retain first place in the NFC, the Eagles will have earned the right to face the lowest remaining seed in the playoffs. The Giants aren't great candidates to knock off the surging San Francisco 49ers. Washington might have a chance against the Vikings, but in all likelihood the Cowboys would be the lowest possible seed to move on from the first round. It may seem strange, but that might actually work in Dallas' favor.
Say Washington does upset the Vikings. Now the Commanders book a second-round matchup with Philadelphia and the Cowboys have to travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers. Think back to Week 6 when the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys lost by single digits in Philadelphia. After watching Philadelphia struggle with teams like the Colts, Packers, and Bears over the last five weeks of the year, a trip to The Linc to face the Eagles doesn't feel nearly as daunting as the prospect of facing the white-hot 49ers team.
Doesn't everybody want to see the two NFC East titans face off at full strength anyway? Let Dallas be the only “upset” in the Wild Card Round. Dallas would go to Philadelphia while the Niners are forced to play a road game in Minnesota. Now Dallas has a chance to beat Philly and take on a Vikings team that they have already slaughtered in Minneapolis for the NFC Championship. Panthers, Eagles, Vikings. That is the dream playoff path for the Cowboys.
