While Dallas Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer is confident in a George Pickens bounce-back, the team is still clinging to postseason hopes. And here is the Cowboys’ playoff picture with their updated DVOA, along with models from The Athletic and ESPN, before their Week 15 contest against the Vikings.
The Cowboys’ best shot to reach the playoffs is by winning the NFC East. They stand at 6-6-1 while the first-place Eagles are 8-5. Both teams have soft schedules down the stretch.
Why the Cowboys’ tie makes it simple
The Cowboys’ tie makes the head-to-head matchups with the Eagles and division record meaningless unless the Eagles tie a game before the end of the regular season. That’s because the winning percentage will decide things.
If the Eagles get to 11 wins, the Cowboys cannot win the division. The best they could do is 10-6-1, which is a winning percentage of .618. At 11-6, the Eagles’ winning percentage would be .647.
Conversely, if the Eagles finish 10-7, their winning percentage would be .588, and the Cowboys would win the division.
The problem for the Cowboys is the Eagles’ schedule. They play the Raiders once and the Commanders twice. That combined record of their opponents is 8-31. Philly also plays the Bills. But as long as they beat the Raiders and sweep the Commanders, the Cowboys have no shot.
Thus, they have just an 8.5% chance to win the NFC East, according to FTN Fantasy.
As for the Wild Card picture, there are opportunities. But the Cowboys’ chances there are currently listed at 1.6%.
ESPN’s take on the Cowboys’ playoff picture
Here’s a fun fact. The ESPN model lists the Cowboys as having a less than 1% chance of earning the No. 1 overall seed. It seems like it should be zero.
But if the Rams and Seahawks tie in their head-to-head meeting, the Packers lose out and finish at 9-7-1, and nobody else in the NFC gets to 11 wins, and the Cowboys win out, their 10–6-1 record would trump the Rams, Seahawks, Eagles, and 49ers for the top spot.
ESPN gives the Cowboys a 10% chance of reaching the playoffs.
Why the slumping Eagles matter
Anybody who thinks the Cowboys truly have just a 10% chance of reaching the playoffs is living in the past. They are viewing the Eagles as the defending Super Bowl champions. That may have mattered earlier in the season. But it’s meaningless now.
The Eagles are a mess. They’re a physical mess with star offensive lineman Lane Johnson out of the mix. And they are a mental mess with a head coach who is out of answers and a quarterback who has fallen apart.
To assume the Eagles will beat the Raiders — as bad as the Raiders are this season — is a risky assumption. And to automatically give them a sweep of the Commanders is foolhardy.
In fact, there may be more of a chance that the Cowboys trip up against the Chargers than there is for an Eagles’ sweep of the Commanders.
Think of how badly Jalen Hurts is playing, according to Fox Sports.
“Hurts had one of his worst games as a pro, becoming the first player in [the NFL] since 1978 to throw an interception and lose a fumble on the same play,” Eric Williams wrote. “That was the lowlight of a confounding five-turnover performance by the reigning Super Bowl MVP.
“Hurts, who threw an interception on the final play of the game by veteran safety Tony Jefferson, completed 52.5% of his passes for 240 passing yards with no touchdowns and four interceptions. Hurts was sacked once, finishing with a season-low 31.2 passer rating. The four interceptions were more than the two interceptions he had on the season entering the game.”
You think that guy could lose to the Raiders and Commanders? Yep.
Things are so desperate that the Eagles have been pushed to bring offensive lineman Jason Kelce out of retirement. Grasping at straws.
The Athletic model gives the Cowboys a slightly better chance
It’s not much, but the Cowboys move up to 11% in The Athletic version.
Yes, it will take plenty of help. But the Cowboys still have a shot. And quarterback Dak Prescott is keeping that in mind, according to a post on X by Jon Machota.
“You know, I could deep dive into this, and I won’t. But to tell you (the answer) is no, because as much as you hate it, I can call two or three games: Do we make the changes and do what we do in the bye week to even have the team that we have now? Probably not. So, everything happens for a reason. I know I say that all the time. I’m just thankful for where I’m at and the opportunity I have to get into the playoffs still, if there is one.”
It starts for the Cowboys this week. They need to take care of expected business against the Vikings. Then they have one more challenging game left against the Chargers before easy wins against the Commanders and Giants.
