Subscribe
Follow Us
The way that the Denver Broncos chose to handle the final drive of their week 1 loss may haunt them for some time. Choosing to take the ball out of Russell Wilson’s hands and giving it to Brandon McManus shocked many.
The Broncos lost their first game of the season to the Seattle Seahawks. Brandon McManus, their star kicker, was given the opportunity to hit a career-long 64-yard kick. Unfortunately for Wilson and the Broncos, McManus missed.
But the choice to even attempt the kick was questioned by many. As the Broncos made their final push down the field, first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s clock management left much to be desired.
Between poorly called timeouts, false starts, and delay of game penalties, the Broncos continued to put themselves in difficult positions.
During the final drive, Russell Wilson led the Broncos' offense to a difficult fourth down. With five yards to go, Hackett allowed for the game clock to reach twenty seconds. He then called a timeout and elected to kick the field goal. When looking at the statistics, this choice was all wrong.
NFL’s Next Gen Stats broke down the probability of McManus hitting the potential game-winner. It was given just a 14.2% chance to be good.
The NGS field goal probability model estimated the odds of McManus making a 64-yd FG in that situation to be 14.2%.
The model does not adjust for kicker strength but does account for elevation & live weather.
🔹 Mile High Stadium: 5,280 ft
🔸 Lumen Field: 16 ft— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 13, 2022
They also took a look at the Broncos' offense's chances of converting the fourth down. With Wilson at quarterback, they were given a 42.1% probability. Had they better utilized their timeouts and converted the attempt, their chances would have risen significantly.
The probability of Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense converting on 4th & 5 against the Seahawks defense in that situation (factoring in team and QB strength) was 42.1%.
If the Broncos had converted on 4th & 5, even with 20 seconds & 2 TO, the odds of scoring 3+ was 66.2%.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 13, 2022
Had McManus made the kick, there would be no conversation around the decision. And the kicker has even stated that this is the exact spot that he wanted Wilson to get the Broncos offense to.
46 yard line left hash was my line to get to. They got it there. Need to make the kick
— Brandon McManus (@thekidmcmanus) September 13, 2022
Regardless, it was a game that the Broncos should have won. They left two touchdowns on the field with two fumbles in the red zone. Any of their self-inflicted mistakes not happening could have led to a different outcome.
