The Detroit Lions may still be reeling after losing on Sunday Night Football. Detroit melted down against Philadelphia, going 0-for-5 on fourth-down attempts and stalling out on offense. But beyond the emotional damage of such a defeat, the Lions now find themselves in unfamiliar territory.
Detroit is now 6-4 heading into Week 12 and, believe it or not, would not qualify for the playoffs if the postseason started today. They are on the outside looking in as the No. 8 team in the NFC.
But the Lions aren't in this position purely because of their own ineptitude. The Bears (7-3) and Packers (6-3-1) have only narrow advantages over the Lions, and the 49ers are an incredibly strong seventh seed at 7-4.
Detroit needs to focus on taking care of Green Bay and Chicago if they want to make the playoffs for a third consecutive season.
But will the Lions be able to make it happen? And what will it take to make the playoffs in a competitive NFC?
Below we will explore Detroit's playoff probabilities and what it would take for them to win the NFC North again in 2025.
Detroit's current playoff odds heading into Week 12
So how long are the odds heading into Week 12?
Conveniently, NFL.com's Ali Bhanpuri published an article on Wednesday detailing the playoff probabilities for each NFL team in Week 12. Not only that, Bhanpuri's article also includes how a win or loss will impact each team's odds.
Detroit currently has a 74% chance to make the playoffs according to the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model. That can go up to 80% with a win against the Giants, or drop to 56% if the Lions lose.
So ultimately, they're in good shape.
But the Bears and Packers are in good position too.
Chicago has a 59% chance of making the playoffs, which could go up to 69% with a win or drop to 45% with a loss. Their odds reflect the idea that, despite leading the NFC North, they likely won't hold that position for long.
Meanwhile, Green Bay has a 73% chance of making the playoffs, which could go up to 81% or down to 57%. Very similar to Detroit.
The path back to the playoff picture for the Lions
Detroit has a fairly clear path to getting into the playoffs. They simply need to take care of business and get a couple of important wins.
Here is the Lions' remaining schedule for the season:
- Week 12 vs. Giants
- Week 13 vs. Packers (Thanksgiving)
- Week 14 vs. Cowboys (Thursday Night Football)
- Week 15 at Rams
- Week 16 vs. Steelers
- Week 17 at Vikings
- Week 18 at Bears
The Lions have a somewhat favorable schedule down the back stretch of the regular season.
A handful of somewhat easy games (Giants, Cowboys, Steelers) could supply the Lions with some easy W's. But from there, the Lions simply need to find a way to win some tough games.
Detroit has one game left against Green Bay and Chicago. They also play each other twice, which could create some chaos that breaks in Detroit's favor.
In that sense, it is less important to say that the Lions need to get X number of wins. Instead, it is more accurate to say that they need to stay ahead of their division rivals. And beat them when given the chance.
Because of this, I would not be surprised if the Lions are already planning ahead of Thanksgiving's game against the Packers.
Can the Lions still win the NFC North?
In case you haven't caught on yet, Detroit's remaining games against Chicago and Green Bay are hugely important.
The Lions have the opportunity to gain a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Bears in Week 18. That advantage could be the difference between Detroit or Chicago making the playoffs, especially considering that three teams coming out of the NFC North currently looks unlikely.
And as I've mentioned, Detroit's Thanksgiving game against Green Bay will have some extra gravity this year.
I don't believe that Detroit needs to win the NFC North to get to the playoffs, but it would certainly help to gain home-field advantage. As long as they slip past one of their rivals they should be fine.
Assuming the Lions beat both the Packers and Bears, and mop up those “easy” games I detailed above, they would have at least 11 wins on the season.
In that scenario, Detroit might have to pull of a big win over Minnesota or LA to get across the finish line. Neither outcome is impossible, but it does not put teh Lions in a comfortable position.
For the moment, the Lions just need to take care of business against the Giants to get back on track.
But their heavyweight fight with the Packers on Thanksgiving looms in the distance. And could end up deciding their fate, one way or another, come January.
