The Detroit Lions as gearing up for one of their most important games of the season on Thanksgiving. Detroit will face off against Green Bay in Week 13 in a matchup that should have serious playoff implications in the NFC North.
If the season ended today, the Lions actually would not make the playoffs.
That's right, Detroit is currently on the outside looking in. Chicago is currently the division leader and Detroit is behind Seattle, Green Bay, and San Francisco for wild card seeding.
But the Lions are moving in the right direction by winning games, just like they did last week against the Giants. It wasn't pretty, but it got the job done.
“You can say what you want, yesterday at the end of the day, the best thing that happened was we did complement each other,” Campbell said about beating the Giants, per Sports Illustrated's John Maakaron. “…it’s like you take it the way it comes and you just try to improve along the way.”
Campbell recalled that Detroit's dominant regular season in 2024 did not result in playoff success. He mused that maybe the hard road will do them well this season.
“I mean 15-2 felt great last year until you get booted right out. Then it’s like maybe we’ve got to go the hard road and just win. Let’s just win and find a way every week and grind it out.”
Below let's explore what Detroit's playoffs odds currently look like before their Thanksgiving bout with Green Bay.
We'll also touch on what a win or loss could mean for the Lions.
Lions playoff odds: DVOA playoff model
Based on the DVOA playoff model over at FTN Fantasy, the Lions still have the best odds of any team in the NFC North to make the playoffs.
Detroit has an 82% total chance of making the playoffs, with a 42.9% chance to win the NFC North and 39.1% chance to make the postseason as a wild card team.
The Lions even have a slim (3.6% chance) to secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC according to this model.
Lions playoff odds: ESPN playoff model
ESPN's playoff model has a less rosy picture for the Lions.
Their model has Detroit with a 72% chance to make the playoffs and just a 32% chance to win the NFC North.
ESPN's model prefers the Packers to win the division, giving them a 45% chance heading into Week 13. They also have an 80% chance to make the playoffs in general.
The Lions also have a 10% chance of making the Super Bowl based on ESPN's model.
Lions playoff odds: The Athletic playoff model
The Athletic's playoff model is pretty much in lock step with ESPN's projections.
They give Detroit a 73% chance to make the playoffs, and a 33% chance to win the NFC North. But The Athletic's is bullish on the Packers, giving them a whopping 51% chance to win the division.
Meanwhile, the Lions only have a 4% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
The Athletic also has a projected standings feature on their page. Heading into Week 13, they project that the Packers will win the division at 11-5-1, barely ahead of the Lions at 11-6.
Detroit makes the playoffs as the No. 7 seed in this scenario, and would head to No. 2 seed Philadelphia for their first game.
How could a win, loss in Week 13 impact the Detroit's playoff chances?
I called this one of Detroit's most important games of the season for a reason.
The Lions need to do whatever it takes to beat the Packers on Thanksgiving. If they can pull of the win, the Lions would improve to 8-4 and the Packers would be 7-4-1. That would put Detroit ahead of Green Bay in the standings and put them in the playoff picture again.
Meanwhile, a loss to the Packers would create a lot of problems for the Lions.
Detroit would be 7-5 and Green Bay 8-3-1 in that scenario. What's worse, the Packer would have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Lions after sweeping them this season. The loss by itself would be tough, but the tiebreaker would make it even more difficult for the Lions to catch the Packers.
In fact, in this scenario, Detroit would almost be better off adjusting their sights at simply competing for a wild card spot in the NFC.
Realistically, the Lions' season will not end if they lose to the Packers. But they would need to be almost perfect for the rest of the regular season, and get some help, to make the playoffs.
It's time for a Thanksgiving miracle, Detroit Lions.
