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The 2-1 Houston Texans will look to dominate the Jacksonville Jaguars again several weeks after they handed Shahd Khan’s franchise a 37-21 loss at home in the season opener. Both the Texans and the Jaguars are not headed to the playoffs, but even in a generally meaningless contest like this, two divisional rivals going up against each other could forge a surprisingly entertaining game. With that said, here are four bold predictions for the Texans in Week 15 against the Jaguars.
Houston Texans Week 15 Predictions
Davis Mills will outplay fellow rookie Trevor Lawrence
This upcoming game against the Jaguars is going to be where Davis Mills adds to the woes of a Jacksonville team that might not have its full focus on the game, considering the Urban Meyer saga that had just transpired earlier in the week.
Back in Week 1, it was the Tyrod Taylor show. Taylor nearly had 300 passing yards while also tossing a couple of touchdowns with zero interceptions on 21-of-33 completions. This time around, it will be Mills, declared as Houston’s starter for the rest of the season, who will shine. Mills was selected in the 2021 NFL Draft by the Texans several names after the Jags expectedly chose Lawrence as the class’ top selection.
Mills heard his name called in the third round of the draft as the 67th overall pick. And although he has appeared in fewer games than Lawrence this season, 13-8, Mills already has thrown for eight touchdowns. Lawrence, on the other hand, just has nine passing touchdowns. The small difference in touchdown success between the two quarterbacks this season is despite the fact that Houston has done a lot worse in protecting its signal-callers than Jacksonville; The Texans’ offense is 27th in the NFL in sack rate, while the Jaguars are top 10 in that department.
Right now, it just looks that a Mills-driven offense has a lot more to give than one that is being propelled by Lawrence, who’s only got a single touchdown to show in his past six starts.
Royce Freeman steps up and burns the Jaguars defense for a touchdown
Mark Ingram played a big role in the Texans’ season-opening win against the Jaguars, but the veteran is no longer in Houston. That leaves the Texans with a running back depth chart that has the following names: Rex Burkhead, David Johnson, and Royce Freeman. Burkhead was ruled out for Week 15 by head coach David Culley on Wednesday due to a hip injury but is currently listed as questionable after attending practice twice.
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Johnson, meanwhile, has not shown much this season. He hasn’t even played since Week 12. But the Texans need their rushing attack against the Jaguars, who are just as bad as Houston in terms of run defense, and it’s Royce Freeman who could get the ground game going for his team in Week 15, especially if Burkhead ultimately gets sidelined. For what it’s worth, Freeman has appeared in the most snaps among Texans running backs in the past two games, and that’s with Burkhead active in both.
Texans pick of Trevor Lawrence three times (at least)
One of the contributing factors to Meyer’s quick downfall in Jacksonville is the slow progress of Lawrence. As mentioned earlier, it’s been a while since the Jaguars rookie quarterback has scored a touchdown. Sure, the Jaguars as a whole is a work in progress, but Lawrence should still be showing at least some incremental growth over the weeks. That hasn’t been the case so far for him, and the Texans’ defense who was a nightmare for Lawrence in Week 1 is back to haunt him again on Sunday. Lawrence did pass for three touchdowns in his NFL debut, but the Texans also picked him off three times and took him to the ground once. One of the most overlooked items on the Texans is the fact that they are among the tops in the NFL in terms of defensive interceptions rate (3.35%). Houston’s defense lacks consistency, though. It hasn’t recorded an interception in the past two games, but the last time they did, they ended up with four picks in an upset win over the Tennessee Titans on the road in Week 11.
Houston comes away with a win and the cover
The Texans opened up as 3-point favorites in this matchup, but that line has since moved significantly due to the Jaguars firing Meyer. That is a welcome development for Houston, which will go 2-0 this season against the Jaguars with an emphatic victory on the road.
