The 10-1 New England Patriots are on top of the AFC standings. They are just ahead of the surging 10-2 Baltimore Ravens, who have won eight in a row after a thrilling 20-17 victory over the San Francisco 49ers, including one triumph over New England.

According to Seth Walder of ESPN, the Patriots are bound to stay at their top-seed ranking, but barely. Based on the FPI simulations, New England has a 52% chance to gain the top overall seed, while Baltimore sits at 48%. Nobody else has earned consideration.

The simulations barely give an edge to New England. That could change based on the outcome of the Patriots' game against the 7-4 Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football.

If the Patriots — who are favorites — lose to the Texans, they will drop to the second seed with a 10-2 record. The Ravens boast the same record, but they own the tiebreaker

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New England's schedule, after the tilt with the Texans in Texas, is split in competition moving forward. Next week, they will face the Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs at home. After that, the one-win Cincinnati Bengals will host New England.

After the Bengals bout, the Patriots will host the 9-3 Buffalo Bills, who they previously beat early in the season. To top it off, the Pats appear to have a freebie win, as they will host the 3-9 Miami Dolphins for their season finale.

The Patriots can't coast with the Ravens breathing down their necks. Bill Belichick won't do that anyway.