The New England Patriots will enter Bills Mafia territory as they head to Orchard Park, New York, to face Buffalo. This Patriots-Bills battle on Sunday Night Football will have plenty of implications. Ultimately, every Patriots player must contribute to have a chance to steal this game. But one New England X-factor must stand out to truly topple one of the few undefeated teams.
Buffalo is currently favored by 8.5 points to beat New England, according to FanDuel. Significantly, most oddsmakers expect the Bills to dominate the Pats. That has not been the case recently. Last season, the Bills narrowly edged out the Pats 24-21. The season before, Buffalo won 27-21 at home.
The battles have been close and competitive. But can New England pull off the upset? Here is the Patriots' X-factor and how they can get the victory, along with other factors that may affect this game.
The current state of the Patriots
It's been a mixed bag in New England this season. After starting the season with a loss at home to the Las Vegas Raiders, the Pats went into South Florida and beat the Miami Dolphins. But the Pats followed that up with a home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Recently, they dominated the Carolina Panthers to improve their record to 2-2.
It is tough to gain a consensus on how good this team is. Although they have looked good in their wins, they have also looked dreadful in their losses. Overall, the offense has been the culprit, and has failed to produce in their two losses.
The contributors to the record
Drake Maye has been efficient as the quarterback this season. So far, he has passed for 998 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Maye has not been perfect by any means. However, he has shown up in the victories and cemented himself as the quarterback of this team.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been good, rushing 31 times for 125 yards, while also catching 11 passes for 141 yards. Likewise, Treveyon Henderson has rushed 26 times for 97 yards and a touchdown while catching 13 passes for 87 yards. Receiver Stefon Diggs has caught 19 passes for 213 yards.
Christian Gonzalez returned last weekend and recorded a tackle to help the Pats beat the Panthers. Ultimately, the defense delivered when they needed to, while also getting a major cushion from the offense.
Recent history vs. the Bills
The Patriots have entered the AFC conversation, and some believe they can secure a playoff spot. However, they have struggled to beat the Bills since Tom Brady left New England. The Patriots are just 3-8 in 11 games against the Bills since Brady left. Alarmingly, that has set a troubling pattern, indicating that the Patriots just cannot beat the Bills.
Much of the failure to beat the Bills has been due to the inability to stop or contain Josh Allen. However, there has also been an inability to score consistently. Yes, there have been a few games where the Pats have scored over 20 points. But there have also been games where they have scored less than 20.
The Patriots' X-factor against the Bills
Many will assume the biggest thing that the Pats need to do is to stop Allen. Therefore, the assumption is that someone on defense must be the X-factor. While all that is true, the best way to stop Allen is to limit his possessions. Therefore, Stevenson is the true Patriots X-factor this Sunday against the Bills.
Stevenson rushed 12 times for 60 yards last season in the 24-21 loss to the Bills, with only one catch for 13 yards. Before that, Stevenson rushed nine times for 34 yards while catching six passes for 51 yards in a 29-25 win in 2023.
The Pats could do the best job of beating the Bills by utilizing Stevenson and all his talent. Ideally, the first step would be to run the football to move the chains. If the Bills stuff the running game, then the Patriots would have to get creative and call dump-off passes for Stevenson and give him a chance in open space. Although Henderson will also be involved, Stevenson is the true X-factor and will be the Patriots' key player who can push them to victory.
The Patriots must find a way to chew up time and have long possessions. While Maye will also be important, he can only be efficient if his top running back is solid. The best way to ensure this is to set him up for success. Moreover, the Pats must find open lanes for Stevenson, whether that's running the football or catching it in space. Stevenson is the key to success, and keeping Allen on the sidelines will be critical to keeping this game close.
