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If fans had been told that the Philadelphia Eagles would be playing the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship, the number of direct flights from PHL to New Orleans would have skyrocketed.
Now sure, anything can happen in any given football game, but the Commanders had just cleaned house, hired Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn as their new head coach, and were picking second overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, where they ultimately selected the clear QB2, Jayden Daniels. Factor in an overreliance on veteran free agents like Bobby Wagner and Olamide Zaccheaus, the hiring of Kliff Kingsbury as their new offensive coordinator, and a Week 1 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and it seemed like it was going to be a long year for Josh Harris, Magic Johnson, and company in Landover, Maryland.
Oh, what a difference 18 weeks can make.
Fast forward to Week 21 of the 2024 NFL season, and the Commanders have officially arrived, going 12-5 in the regular season before scoring two big upsets in the playoffs. They put a beat down on Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were widely expected to win the game, before marching into Detroit and upsetting the first-seed Lions, ending their season and potentially dynasty, what with Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn leaving for head coaching jobs with the Chicago Bears and the New York Jets, respectively.
On the season, the Commanders are 1-1 against the Eagles thanks to the infamous Kenny Pickett game, but how worried should fans in Philadelphia be about the forthcoming rubber match against Washington? Well, considering the Eagles are coming off of a strange, snowy game where Jalen Hurts seemingly suffered a leg injury, this is anything but a slam dunk W, but considering the picture as a whole, things are setting up pretty well for Nick Sirianni to take his team to the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons.
1. Saquon Barkley bullies the Commanders defensive front
How many games has Saquon Barkley rushed for fewer than 100 rushing yards over the course of the 2024 NFL season? Five, with his low water mark coming in Week 6 at 47 on 18 carries. He's battled against old-school 3-4 fronts, has gashed teams that rely on the Tampa 2, and through it all, has helped to make Philadelphia's offense among the league's best, even while averaging the fewest passing attempts per game of any team in the NFL.
But how has Barkley fared against the Commanders in 2024? Pretty darn well, with the pride of Penn State rushing for 146 yards and two touchdowns in Week 11 and then picking up 150 yards and two more touchdowns in Week 17 down Hurts for much of the game. As a whole, Barkley combined for 348 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns on only 57 touchdowns and dominated Commanders even when Quinn and company knew he was going to get the ball more often than not.
Now granted, the Commanders are a slightly different team than the Eagles played back in December, as they got back their best defensive linemen, Jonathan Allen, from what many expected to be a season-ending injury, but as of Wednesday, they have three starting front seven players who are questionable to go in Week 21, including Clelin Ferrell, Daron Payne, and Bobby Wagner.
Considering the Commanders just gave up 200 yards to the Lions in the Divisional Round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs, their fourth-highest mark of the season, things are looking very good for Barkley to turn in another signature performance in Philadelphia, coming off of his own 200-plus yard performance against the Rams in the Snow Bowl. And the best part? If the Commanders do sell out in the pursuit of slowing down Barkley, it will only open things up for the Eagles' passing game, which desperately needs to get going before the Super Bowl.
2. Jalen Hurts proves he can pick apart a defense too
Speaking of the Eagles' 2024 performances against the Commanders in 2024, Hurts' efforts were incredibly disparate due to no fault of his own.
In Week 11, Hurts had one of his best performances of the season, completing 18 of his 28 passes for 211 yards plus 10 carries for 39 yards and a rushing touchdown. While Hurts didn't get the ball into the endzone as a passer, he did complete a pass of 43 yards in the game and just generally made the correct decisions to pick apart the Commander's defense on the way to a 26-18 win.
And in Week 17, Hurts had his worst game of the season, completing just one pass for 11 yards on the way to Philadelphia's third loss of the season.
… okay, technically, Hurts only attempted four passes in Week 17 before he was taken out of action with a concussion, but even in his absence, Pickett put in work in his absence, completing 14 of his 24 passes for 143 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Initially, Pickett looked fantastic, but as the game got close down the stretch, the Pitt product simply couldn't get his team into the endzone to put the Commanders away and had to watch as Daniels scored the go-ahead touchdown with six seconds left in regulation after settling for two field goals.
If Hurts is healthy enough to play, which feels likely, the Eagles should be able to get DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown, and Dallas Goeder going, which has rarely happened in the same game this season. But if Hurts isn't 100 percent as a runner, which is also likely, it may limit what he can do outside of the pocket, which could lead to more short-yardage passing plays instead of the usual deep passing concepts that open up running lanes in the short-to-intermediate part of the field for QB1.
3. The Eagles punch their ticket to the Super Bowl
So, if the Eagles can get 150-plus yards on the ground plus a strong passing effort from their QB1, the Eagles should win, right? Yes, but not just because of their offensive efforts.
You see, there are two sides to every football game, and in 2024, Vic Fangio did a darn good job of slowing down Kingsbury's offense, with Daniels completing 46 of his 71 passing attempts for 449 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions. The Eagles brought Daniels down four times over their first two games but surrendered 99 rushing yards overall, even if he never saw the endzone as a runner.
Now granted, could Daniels get in the zone, have another elite passing game, and make it impossible for the Eagles to put him away early on? Yes, with the LSU under center, the Commanders are seemingly never out of any game, with many of their best efforts featuring tremendous second-half performances, as the Eagles saw back in December.
Still, the Commanders are very much a beatable team, with only one truly elite pass catcher for Daniels to throw to, a good but not elite rushing attack, and a defense that is more piecemeal than carefully cultivated. If the Eagles can get lucky with the injury report, as Quinyon Mitchell absolutely shut down Terry McLauren earlier this season, and can establish the tone right out of the gates, punching the Comanders' defense in the mouth with long, sustained drives built on a strong rushing attack, Philadelphia should pull this one out and punch their ticket to the Super Bowl once more.
Will it be a stressful 60 minutes of action? You bet, but in the end, the only thing that will be truly stressed is the fanbase's bank accounts, as securing plane tickets and hotels in New Orleans in February is no joke.
